Do you think tennis is won on statistic or mental toughness.?

Question

The use of statistics has become increasingly prevelant in predicting sports performance. It is pretty easy to build a spread sheet that accurately predicts performance in football games and baseball games. (the models give you average scores and win percentage).

In tennis, the most accurate predictor is simply the percentage of overall points won (you can break it down further into service and returns).

Last year at Wimbledon, Federer won the match and beat Nadel by a total of 7 points out of 400. This year Nadel won the match and beat Federer by 4 points out of 400. Most math guys will tell you that both matches were statistical dead-heats and the winner won as much by luck as anything else.

In otherwords, did Nadel have Federers' number, or are they equals on grass and Nadel got lucky this time?

Answer 1

statistic

Answer 2

In all sports, every aspects counts

the ability & condition of the players is the main deciding factor in winning games

all the rest will just correlate with the outcome

Answer 3

It's mostly mental because if you're really good but you make one mistake and you lose all confidence in yourself. But if you're not that good but you're really strong mentally then you keep on trying then you have more chance of winning.

Answer 4

I don't believe the two are mutually exclusive. Rafa just keeps getting better and better every year physcially and mentally and the statstics reflect that. And his name is Nadal not Nadel.

Answer 5

These 2 things are inter related.

Mental thoughness can lead to statistical success and if you have more statistical success, then you become more confident with yourself. There is no rhyme or reason as to which one matters more but they do affect each other.

Answer 6

Tennis is almost all mental.  Each point is a new point and this is what seperates the best from the very good and the good from the average.  It is very easy to see why Rafa is so good, he plays each point like it's a new point and each time like it is championship point.  So even if he has made some mistakes(rare for Nadal) he continues to play points the same way and therefore can bounce back quickly even if he is making mistakes.  Because Nadal wears his emotions on his sleeve this is easier seen but Roger Federer plays the same way.  An example in the opposite direction is James Blake.  Blake who has tremendous skills very caparable to Nadal and Federer and at times seemingly better has never reached their level.  This is because he is not as mentally tough.  He is too streaky.  When he plays great he plays great but when he starts making mistakes they eat away at him.  He is still thinking about that mistake from the last point instead of focusing on the one he is playing.  These are examples at the very highest levels of the game that show that Tennis is truly a game of mental toughness.

Answer 7

There have been matches where the loser won more points than the winner. Check out this match where Federer won 179 points to Nadal's 174 and still lost.

http://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/pl...

In tennis it has to do with the big points. Not every point is equal. If you serve a double fault at 40-0, no big deal. But a double fault at 0-30 can really hurt you. Technically tennis boils down to winning the last point. Whoever wins the last point, wins the match.

That's what Nadal does better than Federer. He plays the  big points better. One reason for this is that Nadal is a fighter. Federer depends more on fluency which can really get screwed to h**l when you're under pressure. For the past 4 years, Federer did not really need to win the big points because all his matches were lopsided wins. Now he's having trouble because his matches are closer than they used to be.

In their most recent match: hhttp://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/pl...

the points were close, but the most telling statistic was the break point conversion. Federer 1/13 vs Nadal 4/13.

That's where Federer lost hte match.

So I suppose the answer to your question is, tennis is won on statistics that measure mental toughness.

Answer 8

To answer the actual question, tennis is more mental than physical. It is 80% mental and 20% physical. Without confidence in yourself and the willpower to move on, you can use your physicality in a match.

I think that they are not equal on grass. I think that Nadal is better than Federer now. At the Artois Championships this year, he played against Djokovic in the finals and won 7-6, 7-5. That grass are the traditional fast-grass courts. Wimbledon is slower. Nadal was still able to beat Djokovic even on the fast surface. Nadal didn't get lucky, he can just play the points out and that's why he held his own serve, while Federer can really only serve to get points, not play them the traditional way. Nadal has a better game and return of serve.

=)

Answer 9

to answer ur question i will use safin:

great player, great form, great everything. so statistically he is tough.

mentality: 0. he gets angry over anything.

result: a loss in the match.

therefore, with mental toughness, statistics are nothing.

Answer 10

Nadal has improved trifold, where Federer stood still. It might be an overstated analysis. No, Nadal worked hard to win the Wimbledon this year, luck did not favor him. Next year Nadal will excel Federer by far.

Answer 11

devinnetly mental anything can happen statistics dont prove anything

Answer 12

Isn't this what statistics is about? Use data to build a model in order to be able to predict future outcomes?

If the predictions are consistently incorrect, then the model is not a good model and needs to be refined.