Do you think the conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia will develop into a larger scale war?

Question

Vinay Shukla Moscow, Aug 8 (PTI) Russia today sent tanks and troops to South Ossetia after Georgia launched a major military offensive to reclaim the breakaway republic, triggering heavy street fighting that is said to have left hundreds dead or injured.

The worst outbreak of hostilities since the pro-Moscow province won de-facto independence in a war against Georgia in 1992 broke out after Georgian artillery and air assault hit provincial capital Tskhinvali.

Ten Russian peacekeepers were killed and 30 wounded in Georgian shelling in their barracks last night, Russian officials said, terming the attack a botched attempt to regain control over the province.

Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers crossed the border and moved towards Tskhinvali, while the Defence Ministry said it has sent reinforcements for its peacekeepers.

Quoting its sources, NewsGeorgia web news portal confirmed that at least 100 tanks and armoured vehicles have crossed through the Roksky Tunnel linking Russian and Georgian parts of Ossetia partitioned by former Russian leader Joseph Stalin in North and South Ossetia.

South Ossetian separatist leader Eduard Kokoity claimed hundreds of civilians had been killed. Witnesses said the capital city has been devastated, with bodies lying around and cars and buildings damaged in shelling.

The fighting broke out as world's attention was focused on Olympic Games opening ceremony and top leaders, including Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin were in Beijing.

Answer 1

No, it'll be over too quickly. The estimated initial forces of a fighter squadron and 150+ tanks are just the beginning, but this means 1 Russian tank for every 2 Georgian tanks. If Georgian forces open fire on Russian forces, Russia will invade in full force - there are three mechanized infantry divisions and at least two tank divisions, roughly 36,000 infantry and 20,000 armor soldiers, plus substantial air support all within the area. I would put even money that Russian soldiers will have effective control of Tblisi by the end of next week.

Russia has never wanted to let go of the former Soviet republic. Its actions technically constitute war, especially since Russia has recognized Georgia as independent, although it considers many of the citizens in the autonomous regions (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) to be Russians. There are ethnic ties that run deep - its a similar situation to that of Chechnya in that Russia still feels that it holds authority there by virtue of persons it deems Russian citizens by ethnicity. Thus, Russia legitimates this use of force which is really just an exercise in power projection.

Answer 2

Here is Ossetia's point of view I' ve read:



Appeal to the Governments and peoples of the world

Our people have been systematically exterminated for the past 19 years by the fascist Georgian regime, and their inhuman atrocities have been neglected by the world for the sake of geopolitical interest of the United States.

The conflict is being resolved in compliance with international law. However, skillfully applying falsification of historical facts and political insinuations, under a patronage from the US government, Georgia misrepresents reality to the world.

As of today, the major part of South Ossetia has been eradicated by Georgian aggressors. Our elderly, women and children continue to die. The total death toll is unknown as the Georgian side was opening heavy fire at those trying to help the wounded. Including children.

The unmatched Georgian brutality has been vividly displayed in 1991-1992, when they have been firing point-blank at South Ossetian civilians – the Zar tragedy can never be forgotten, a bus full of people shot dead - elderly, women and children. They shot a three-year-old boy trying to hide under his mother’s body.

What can we talk about with Georgia? How can we forgive burying people alive, burning people, and torturing people with refined methods? After all this, the world is silent and the Georgians continue killing innocent people. Saakashvili doesn’t feel sorry for anybody, even his compatriot Georgians. The notions of "people" and "meat" are not too different for him, and probably he prefers the latter.

For South Ossetia there is only one way to survival - a recognition of its independence by the world community. We appeal to all the good people in the world not to be indifferent to the fate of the Ossetian people.

Answer 3

i hope not...but i think it will.

Answer 4

I smell a ww3...hopefully i'm wrong.

Answer 5

Just facts: Russia did not initiate military action.  Georgia's forces has bombed and destroyed the region's capital and 1400 civilians in just the 1st day.  There can be no justification for that.  DO NOT forget this point. For the rest, see the videos below.

Answer 6

The fighting will be over, and Georgia conquered, before it's time to vote on this question.  

Don't expect any international response.  The most you can hope for is that some countries may pull out of the Olympics, or refuse to stand on the podium with the Russians.

Answer 7

I'm afraid so, violence has already erupted throughout the border-line of Russia and Georgia. Jet fighter has already been shot down, civilians are dieing, and russian tanks are already mobilizing. we all just hope it wont escalate.

Answer 8

I'm afraid there is definitely a higher risk of war right now.

Read the report made below entitled "War Alert!" by Edgar J. Steele.

Just a couple of quotes from "War Alert!":

"US Economy About to Crash and Burn:

Traditionally, war is used to distract a population saddled with economic catastrophe, don’t forget."

"Obama May be About to be Elected:

I think the possibility of Obama being elected has the powers that be scared, in that they cannot be certain that he will dance to their tune. This accelerates the need to do something while Shabbats Goyim George W. Bush still occupies the White House."

"American traitor and main Jewish cheerleader for Israel, Senator Joe Lieberman, just called for the invasion of Iran, saying that its rhetoric constitutes a “war crime.” d**k Cheney just amped up his own rhetoric and has gone on the circuit, plumping for an invasion of Iran. General US anti-Iran rhetoric has gone up significantly in the past few weeks and days."

Answer 9

I hope this does turn into a full scale war. I was born in the Former USSR and Georgia is nothing but a traitor and now it for no apperent reason it attacked Russian citizens hoping the US will stand up for them. It is about time Georgia got what they deserved.

Answer 10

Lets hope so. That way Abkhazia and South Ossetia can gain fully recognized Independence from Georgia. The only reason the US doesn't recognize them is because Georgia is the 3rd largest contributor of troops to the occupation of Iraq and that would mess up Bush's goal of worldwide oil dominance.

Answer 11

No

Answer 12

It feels like WAR GAMES to me! Iran can get involved at any time due to distance. This is strange that Georgia has a connection to the US via OIL. Concerning!!

Answer 13

Not sure but the thing I know is that Russian President Medvedev said that Georgia is not gona get away for killing Russian peace makers in Georgia and for breaking all the by attacking smaller countries. U.S is behind this because Medvedev also said that Georgia wouldnt be able to do this without Americas help  

Answer 14

All may be, but USA sponsored Georgia military technic and the say the Saakaswili to start the war

Answer 15

We did not care that Kosovo was part of Serbia when we supported its independence, arguing that human rights were more important. Now, exactly the same thing is going on with Ossetia, but we do not seem to support its independence, arguing that territorial integrity of Georgia is more important. We should be consistent: we either support territorial integrity or the rights of ethnic minorities to be independent.

Answer 16

Well some people are saying that this might be World War 3. Although if Georgia joins NATO and with Russia's Nuclear Weapons and the U.S.'s Nuclear Weapons; this could snowball into a bigger situation. I hope that helped

Answer 17

No. We worthless, war mongering Americans will step in, kick Ivan's butt, and save Europe once again.

Answer 18

It just ended 10 minutes ago :|

Answer 19

To begin with, there was NO conflict in post soviet era where Russia didn't play very active role. As usual that role is extremely negative. In other words Russia has been and is fueling local ethnic conflicts and separatist movements as means to pressure and weaken former soviet republics which are now independent countries. Something that Russia can't stomach and accept.

For years Russia has been violating Georgian airspace and attacking Georgian targets on the land and in air. Few weeks ago Russian MIG shut down Georgian UAV in Georgian airspace. Video is easily available on youtube. Obviously, Russia is still in denial, even though none else in that region operates MIG fighter jets.

For the record Russia has been using carpet bombing and daily MLRS bombardments of Chechnya for 12+ years. All that was hailed by Russian media and propaganda machine as "restoring the constitutional order.

Also, let's not forget that first wave of the Chechen terrorists were trained in Russian military bases, by Russian military specialists in early 90s to fight proxy wars for Russia in Caucasus. Including in Abkhazia and Osetia against Georgia.

Infamous Basaev was one of them and his first big operation was genocide of Georgian population in Abkhazia during that period, check out one of the links for more info . This isn't something Russians like to remember or admit, but that is the fact, Russia did sponsor genocide of Georgians with Chechen and Abkhaz's hands. And they're no less responsible for it as they're responsible for today's conflict and human casualties.

At that time Russian media referred to basaev and his henchmen as "freedom fighter volunteers" helping abkhazs. Basaev and others from his formations later turned their arms against Russia when Chechnya declared independence, which is when they were renamed to bloody terrorists, which btw they were. What happened after that I think is well known to the whole world. So, it's really pathetic of Russian Government and some others to come out and pretend to care about human casualties when they did much worse in many places for decades.

Also, bombing civilian Georgian population way outside of conflict zone, to defend Russians in Osetia sounds really far stretched. Especially considering that those Russian citizens in Osetia were created pretty much overnight few years ago when Russia gave over 100 000 passports to the population in Abkhazia and Osetia. Now they use that as an excuse to justify their aggression. At the same time thousands of ethnic Russians from former soviet republics were and still are waiting for their Russian citizenship and passports. They were pretty unhappy to learn that others were getting citizenship for which they had to wait years, practically overnight and in many cases w/o even asking for it. Either way,  it shows how much Kremlin really cares for Russians.

If you would like to talk about ethnic cleansing may be you should look back to 92-94 and find out how come that abkhaz population which was less than 17% before abkhaz war, is now pretty much the only ethnic group in that region.

Killing and driving Georgian population out was the way to create pro Russian majority in both places. Something that today's Russia and their proponents always fail to mention and now they request from Georgia to accept all that?

S.O. Is part of Georgian territory in the eye of UN and it wasn't recognized as a country by anyone.

Even Russia doesn't recognize it as an independent country, giving them Russian passports.

P.S. About taking Georgia In few hours. In 1994 Russians already made a statement exactly like that about Chechnya - Grozny can be taken with one paratrooper division within few hours. Statement was made when Russian officials were trying to convince the world they weren't fighting in Chechnya, but good Chechens(pro-russian) were fighting bad Chechens (those who wanted independence). Few days later when Chechens showed captured Russian soldiers the lie became clear, but that didn't really stop Russia from moving on.

All in all it took over a decade to gain control over Chechnya and it's still not fully controlled. And it's not like Russia was holding back on anything.

Answer 20

I don't know what ot may develop into, but neither variant is good. There is already a large scale war between Georgia & Russian citizens (Ossetians). Besides, it's not Moscow who started this war, they even seem to do nothing to protect their own people, but American government still tell Russia to withdraw their forces from Georgia. Sounds ridiculous. Why do they support Kosovo as independent region, but help Geirgia "

Answer 21

I have always been hoping for wwiii, but sadly this is not it. this issue will disappear as quickly as the georgian military forces. the west is far too afraid and bogged down to do anything. it is really quite sad. authoritarian governments like china and russia are winning the day in the name of peace and prosperity. don't worry kiddies... wwiii will come soon enough and hopefully in the aftermath of yet another round of useless wholesale slaughter we will learn just a little bit more.

Answer 22

NO,  the Russians will take over the oil resources.

Answer 23

It will probably develop into a long-term regional conflict, but I doubt it will get much larger.

Answer 24

US and Condom LIsa was in *hit. Saakashvill was in it too. There was a  treacherous blow of Georgia with thousands of murdered Osetian's civilians.

This is a true face of US politic.

Answer 25

I don't know. Perhaps. If it does we are ill prepared with half our forces scattered around the world fighting wars for our tard of a president.  

Answer 26

lets not hope, but i have a feeling it will.

Answer 27

Nah.

Answer 28

Maybe.  Russia is claiming that the Ukraine is providing armaments to Georgian troops.  They might decide to... *ahem*, force them to stop.

But I really doubt the West will do much of anything.  

Answer 29

No, I think Medved and Putin just showed Georgia and other former Soviet states that NATO does not have the stomach or will to back them.  

Answer 30

Tell Saakashvill to get the h**l out of South Ossettia.

He has no business taking the law into his own hands that is not part of Georgia in the eye of the U.N.

Answer 31

Georgia stiked the south ossetian region and russia defend south ossetia. South ossetia wants indepence just like kosovo wanted indepence. It is the same thing that happened with the US and kosovo. Continuing on to my point, Georgia knew that russia was going to defend ossetia but they attacked anyway. Russia had troops built up on the border. Georgia is trying to start ww3 by assuming the Us will get into the conflict as well. They attack ossetia because they assumed the US would help, simply because russia is the "enemy". The is the first time sense ww2 that russia has been right in declaring war.