Does Rocco Medaite stand a better chance of beating Tiger Woods in sudden death or 18 hole playoff?

Question

Suppose that Tiger Woods is 10% better than Rocco Mediate. What is the probability of Rocco Mediate beating Tiger Woods in sudden death versus an 18 hole playoff. My friend and I both agree that Tiger Woods is a superior player but disagree on which is more advantages for Rocco Mediate (or any othe "inferior" player). I argue that Rocco stands a better chance in a sudden death since anything can happen on a single hole. My friend argue that he stands a better chance in an 18 hole playoff. Does anyone have statistic to prove one way or the other?

Answer 1

Tiger has only lost two playoffs in his career (15-2)both sudden death format.  One to Harrington in 2 and the other to Billy Mayfair in one.  I believe that Rocco was up after 3 (which is how 2 of the 4 Majors are scored).

Answer 2

I would say in this situation, Rocco had a better chance of winning in 18 holes. Tiger's knee was hurting so the longer the match went the better Rocco's chances would have gotten, because Tiger's knee could worsen. You saw that at the end when Rocco made that charge at Tiger to come back, but Tiger escaped on the last hole. However, in a situation where Tiger is 100%, I would like Rocco's chances better in a sudden death playoff, because he would only have to win one hole to win it all, so there would be a better chance of an upset if he doesn't have to hang in with Tiger for a long time- just hope you get lucky early and end it before Tiger does.

Answer 3

Neither