Does anybody think that Big Brown...?

Question

...can really win the Derby with so little racing under his belt, and his last race, at 1 1/8, being all the way back in March 29?

Answer 1

just a reminder the world record holder for 6 furlongs

is in the race : bob black jack....106 4-5.....if anyone

goes with him they will be toast.....if they let "bob"

get a easy lead...he might just shake loose turning

for home.......

Answer 2

If he gets a good trip, he's talented enough to win the Derby.  A good trip is very elusive in the Derby though.  It depends a lot on post position.  If he has to break outside of a lot of speed, he doesn't win.  If he gets a good position and gets to the front near the rail, then he has a shot.

Experience matters for how well he'll be able to handle a bad trip.  If he had 5-6 starts under his belt or at least had faced tough stakes company, then I'd give him a little more leeway in the post position area.  With more experience, a horse learns to overcome a bad trip and deal with a pace that's not to his liking or learns to win after a 3 wide trip or a troubled trip at the rail.  Big Brown has had 3 extremely easy trips and has never faced a decent closer.  If he gets a bad trip, he's not going to understand what to do.  If he meets a good closer who can challenge him in the stretch, he's not going to have the experience to look the horse in the eye and match his stride to run a final quarter in 23.

Answer 3

I think he could.  But, I think his inexperience is going to hold him back.  Even Curlin (who I think had 3 starts before the Derby) only came in third last year.  However, I should note that up to this point it appears that Curlin had far stiffer competition than Big Brown (Hard Spun and Street Sense were both excellent horses).

Answer 4

I think Big Brown has a better chance than most of the field, but there are probaly 4-5 horses better than him.

Answer 5

With 20 great ones - Big Brown is a strong contender.

Answer 6

This horse has amazing speed and loves to run, he has the extra gear going towards the finish and a nice size stride to him... I think he'll be perfectly fine in the Derby.

I think he's the winner and I'll be cheering him all the way through, because he is my favorite.

But then there is his foot problem. That does give me a worry. Lets just hope it doesn't effect him too bad! I believe it was his trainer that was saying his feet have been in great shape though, and they are not that worried about it.

So lets just hope they'll be fine.

Another thing is his post position, could he handle an inside post number, or and outside?

But then again, look at the Florida Derby...

No matter what though, he is my favorite.

Answer 7

Hasn't been done since 1915, so it's unlikely. Keep him in your exotic bets, though.

Answer 8

If Curlin couldnt win with 3 races under his belt, no one can.

Answer 9

If he draws a good post position, he's got a shot. I'll be looking at the horses in post positions 5 through 12.

Answer 10

we will see but i think so

Answer 11

Looking at his Beyer's, he appears to be an easy winner. I agree though, he's definitely short on experience. As far as a betting proposition, I'm thinking he's going to get way over bet. I'll be looking elsewhere.

Answer 12

gayego will make him look like a donkey

Answer 13

Well, the 5 weeks thing shouldn't affect him much; it sure didn't impact Barbaro (I doubt he could have run much faster than he did).

He's got a shot yes, but it's not a terrific one. Remember that Street Sense came in last year with but 2 preps under his belt, one of which he lost (although it being polytrack that isn't really fair to him). He's been training longer, also, than Curlin, which makes his inexperience less of a drawback in comparison, IMO.

He also has foot difficulties, which could become a nightmare if they flare up in the coming week.

He can win it, moreso than a lot of horses, but he's going to have to have some luck as well.