Does anyone know if they have predicted the 2009 hurricane season yet?

Question

I'm possibly planning a cruise for the middle/end of the year next year. Was wondering if anyone knew if they predicted a good or bad year for hurricanes next year or when they will be. When I say the middle/end of the year talking the months between Aug. - Oct.

We will probably be leaving from FL if we do take a cruise.

Answer 1

Not for 2009.  One of the major factors for what hurricane season will bring is what El Nino/La Nina is doing.  People forecast El Nino/La Nina out to about 1 year (15 months).  But no one would dare actually use a forecast of something weather related 1 year out to forecast something as important as hurricane season.  There's just not enough confidence.  So no one does any hurricane season forecasts a year out.

The other factors that go into a hurricane forecast are even harder to forecast a year out.  So at this point there's really no way.

The forecast for hurricane season 2009 will come out in April of 2009.

Answer 2

Dr. William Gray, of Colorado State University, is one of the most well respected hurricane forecasters.  He has predicted an above normal year (15 named storms and 8 hurricanes).  NOAA has predicted a normal to above normal year with 12-16 named storms and 6-9 hurricanes.  

Predicted where they will strike, far in advance, however is much more complicated.  However, typically Florida and the Carribean is affected by at least one storm during an average year.  

Lastly, no one can predict when they will occur this far in advance, but the period of August through early October is certainly the peak of the season.

You are certainly planning on taking a cruise in the most active hurricane months where the threat of impact, should storm occur, is relatively high.  

Check with your cruise company to see what their policies are regarding hurricane activity.  Are cruises cancelled and refunds provided, or does the company just route around storms?

Answer 3

The 2009 Hurricane Season? It's too early to make a good prediction. But they have the prediction for this year 2008.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008...

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-...