Does the 10-day forecast change often?

Question

Does the 10-day forecast change often?

Answer 1

yes it does. it's only a prediction. i wouldn't rely on it.

Answer 2

most of the time...yes

Answer 3

oh yeah

Answer 4

It does often change especially during the last few days of the 10-days forecast change; remember it's only a prediction, not very accurate, but in the first few days of the 10-day forecast, the weather is probably most likely to stay the same.

Answer 5

Where I live it changes every day...usually from bad to worst.

Answer 6

yes, they revise it almost every hour

Answer 7

Yes all the time

Answer 8

yes because most weather reports are wrong so it changes all the time

Answer 9

All the time.

usually they are most accurate within the first 3 days.

Answer 10

YES, the forecast change often the reason for this change is the climatic conditions.

Answer 11

about every 10 minutes or so...

Answer 12

yes always, lol. don,t depend on anything more than the 3 day....only half right then..

Answer 13

yup

Answer 14

Yes it does change often. Its basically is like a "prediction".

Help me?

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?...

Answer 15

yes-every 10 days

Answer 16

Yes, weather forecasting is only reliable for up to 3 days.  Any forecasts beyond that are educated guesses, based on three computer models.  Such is the field for meteorology.

Chaos theory and the butterfly effect were inspired by questions like weather forecasting.

Pulling together a weather forecast requires complex math from physics and fluid dynamics that can only be crunched out by computers.  Applications of chaos theory and a record of the past along with thousands of monitoring stations and satellites reporting on the changes.

According to Wikipedia:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorology

"Starting in the 1950s, numerical experiments with computers became feasible. The first weather forecasts derived this way used barotropic (that means, single-vertical-level) models, and could successfully predict the large-scale movement of midlatitude Rossby waves, that is, the pattern of atmospheric lows and highs.

In the 1960s, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere was first observed and understood by Edward Lorenz, founding the field of chaos theory. These advances have led to the current use of ensemble forecasting in most major forecasting centers, to take into account uncertainty arising from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere....

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since at least the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve.

Once an all human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition...

According to Wikipedia:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_w...

"Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Use of model ensemble forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible....

As proposed by Dr. Edward Lorenz in 1963, it is impossible to definitively predict the state of the atmosphere, owing to the non-linear nature of fluid dynamics. Furthermore, existing observation networks have limited spatial and temporal resolution, especially over large bodies of water such as the Pacific Ocean, which introduces uncertainty into the true initial state of the atmosphere. To account for this uncertainty, stochastic or "ensemble" forecasting is used, involving multiple forecasts created with different model systems, different physical parametrizations, or varying initial conditions. The ensemble forecast is usually evaluated in terms of the ensemble mean of a forecast variable, and the ensemble spread, which represents the degree of agreement between various forecasts in the ensemble system, known as ensemble members. A common misconception is that low spread amongst ensemble members necessarily implies more confidence in the ensemble mean. Although a spread-skill relationship sometimes exists, the relationship between ensemble spread and skill varies substantially depending on such factors as the forecast model and the region for which the forecast is made."

Answer 17

Mhmm a ten day forecast is very unpredictable. They could say in 4 days it will be bright and sunny but it could turn out 4 days later it is cloudy and rainy. Weather is unpredictable period. your best luck is to constantly check it, if you have something planned start checking  twice a day for the next 3 days before your event

Answer 18

yes...a forecaster makes a forecast based on the previous and present state of the atmosphere...computer models and the forecaster predict the atmosphere for the later date...unfortunately the atmosphere is always changing and events can happen that change the forecast  the farther in the forecast...the less accurate it is.

this doesn't mean the forecast is always wrong though...but there will definitely be changes here and there.