Does your chance of an accident go up the longer you drive?

Question

I'm having a disagreement with a friend.

She says that the longer you drive without an accident, the more you are "overdue" for an accident, and therefor each time you drive you are at a bigger risk of being in one.

I think that's complete rubbish. Each time you get into your car, your chance of being in an accident should be exactly the same whether it's your 1st or your 10,000th time driving. The only difference would come from things like the time of day, the distance you are driving, etc. But NOT because your risk goes up the longer you "get away with" not being in an accident. That's just silly.

Answer 1

Yesterday is GONE--tomorrow is the future--TODAY is all that matters. driving is dangerous at anytime. Why argue the point---the facts are there---it is a really serious job to drive a vehicle safely.

Answer 2

your friend is wrong. I have driven 56 years without an accident. lots of times you get caught up in an accident caused by others and you just happen to be at the wrong place at the wrong time

Answer 3

Theoretically, the more experience, maturity and judgment you have, the less likely you are to be involved in a motor vehicle mishap...However, we are dependent on the same experience, maturity and judgment of every other driver on the road with us to help us get to where we want to go without meeting by accident...Therefore, everytime we get behind the wheel, we put ourselves at risk by being on the same road as a teenager or maybe a drunk or perhaps a foreigner who has only been driving for 6 months...It's a roll of the dice.

Answer 4

I have to agree with Joe....

Your friend is looking at life with the idea that you "will" be involved in an accident, sooner or later.  You are looking at life with the attitude that if you are attentive, drive defensively and pay attention to the world around  you, your chances of having an accident shouldn't be an issue.

I guess I fall into the last catagory... and the comment that Joe made kinda fits as well.  Over the last 30 years, I have driven at least 2.5 million accident and violation free miles in a truck.  I'm not saying I haven't had some close calls, or even deserved a ticket or two along the way, but because I have never told myself that I am "perfect" at what I do, I still pay attention.  If you become lax in your attentiveness, you will have an accident.  You have to "think" and anticipate what could happen all the time.  I have made a game out of it.  I look at everything I can see and say, "What if?"....   It keeps my mind alert and it keeps my eyes moving so I can get more input as to my surroundings.

Am I overdue for an accident or ticket.... I guess it depends on how you look at life.  I am in control of my own destiny.  As long as I take care of myself, I won't have any problems.  Like Joe said.... the biggest problems I see today with drivers on the roadways is "cell phone useage" while driving.  The other one is loud music.  If you can't hear your surroundings, how can you adapt to them?  

Does my experience count for something?  I have had insurance companies tell me my rates on my personal vehicles was going to go up, because of my professional career.  They were in the same mindset as your friend.... I was out there more, so I was more of a liability.  They did not take into account that I have a flawless driving record.  I was just a statistic.  Needless to say, they lost my business as well.

Hope this helps....  Tell your friend that the glass is half full... not half empty....  :-}

Answer 5

No, the more that you drive the better you become and you are less likely to have an accident.

Answer 6

Well you are both partially right and neither of you is completely.

She has a point, the more time you spend on the road, the higher your chances of having an accident, simply because you are exposed to the risk more, simple probability.

On the other hand, I work as a liability adjuster for a big trucking company, we see a lot of drivers with a million, even 2 million accident free miles. The reason they have overcome the probability for so long, is their experience.  You get good at things through practice, so the paradox is that  the longer you spend on the road the better you get at it, which lowers your chances of being in an accident even though by being on the road more, you increase your risk by increasing your exposure, lol Thats some catch that catch 22 huh ?

I will tell you this with all of the sincerity I can generate, I've worked just short of 4,000 accidents, In the ones I've worked, the 2 biggest factors bar none, were impatience, and inattention. A close 3rd is just plain old garden variety stupidity. Any of the 3  will kill you and someone else in a heartbeat. Factor in youth (read inexperience) cell phones, stereos, alcohol and drugs,  elderly folks whose reflexes just aren't up to snuff, mothers with kids, anyone with dogs in the cockpit, you get the idea. When you are in command of 1 and a half tons of guided missile, it deserves your undivided attention.

Answer 7

No the chances that you will have a accadent while driving goes down with experance.

Also the area that you live in has a lot to do with the probibility that you will be in an accedent or not. The city is far better chance that a rural area.

and if you are driving on a race track then you will be far more lickly to be in a wreck. If you arnt rubbing you arnt racing.