Question:

Election math question?

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The most recent Gallup poll shows a 45% - 45% tie between Obama and McCain.

They break this down further by demographic group.

The white vote is 37% - 52% Obama - McCain

The black vote is 93% - 2%

The hispanic vote is 58% - 31%

What is the demographic make up of the survey, i.e. what percentage of those surveyed are white, black and hispanic?

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  1. Let K be the total number of voters for Obama (or McCain, in this case they are the same).The data imply that

    .37w+.93b+.58h=.52w+.02b+.31h

    =.45w+.45b+.45h=K

    This in turn implies

    b = .3703703704*K, h = -.1410934744*K, w = 1.992945326*K. Since the number of hispanic voters cannot be negative, K must equal 0, and so must w+b+h, so it is impossible for this demographic result to occur using a positive sample.

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