Explain 2007 as 2nd hottest year during intense La Nina cooling?

Question

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080114_GISTEMP.pdf

"The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the 'El Nino of the century'".

“La Nina cooling in the second half of 2007 (Figure 2) is about as intense as the regional cooling associated with any La Nina of the past half century”

"The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998..."

"...the 14 warmest years in the record have all

occurred since 1990."

“'Global warming stopped in 1998' has become a recent mantra of those who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature exposes this assertion as nonsense."

Answer 1

The one thing the some people consistently fail to realize is that warming is generally good.  Assuming it is not too great the warming will be generally beneficial but that is seldom mentioned.  Greenhouse gases have a moderating effect on the temperature with most warming on the coldest nights and winter temperatures.  Warmth is the harbinger of good things.  Cold is generally bad.  To try to assume that warmth is bad is silly and more indicative of an agenda, not of practical solututions, common sense, or science.

Answer 2

maybe the temperatures are going up because we are coming out of an ice age?

Answer 3

2007 started as an El-Nino year, an El-Nino which brewed for several months in 2006 which consequently quelled the 2006 hurricane season. Even though February of 2007 was below the Oceanic Nino Index the effects of the El-Nino in the climate system take several months to dissipate. In fact the years 2002 - 2007 have all been under the influence of the El-Nino phenomena. It would be impossible for any year within that range not to be abnormally warm. Attempting to detect a global warming signature in a 5 year long running El-Nino trend is not possible by looking at the GISS temperature data within the year's of 2002-2007.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/an...

While the Pacific is a very strong influence of global temperatures, the Atlantic also causes changes in atmospheric energy circulation that alters climate as well. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has also contributed to warming of the Northern Hemisphere as well, such as the record setting minimum extent of Arctic sea ice.

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/200...

So to answer your question La-Nina has only recently began effecting global temperatures, in fact NOAA debated for several months during the mid to late summer if 2007 was even a La-Nina year.

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Answer 4

Don't forget the fact that we're in the midst of the solar cycle minimum.  It's pretty funny to watch the deniers try to explain this one away.  The warming isn't real, it's just a figment of the surface stations' imagination.  No wait, it's real, but it's El Niño!

Cool ENSO cycle, solar minimum, and yet it's the second-warmest year on record.  If they admit it, they can't use their 'no warming since 1998' argument anymore though!

Answer 5

The surface temperature record has many problems which is why a large number of scientists prefer ocean heat content as a better metric for measuring and analyzing climate change.  

One of the biggest issues with the land-based surface record is microsite issues.  Anthony Watts, a broadcast meteorologist, is leading an all-volunteer effort to photograph and document the quality of surface stations in the GHCN.  They started in the US and now more than one-third of USHCN stations have been photographed.  85% of them were found not to meet the minimum standards of the NOAA.  They had a strong warm bias due to non-climatic influences.  Some of them were located right on top of parking lots!

Some people are estimating that up to half of the observed warming is not real but an artifact of these poorly sited stations.  You might want to look at the presentation Watts gave to UCAR in 2007.  

BTW, ocean heat content shows no warming over the last several years.