FIFA World Cup 2010: Who is going to win the world cup this year?
The final round of the group stages are about to begin and everyone seems to have an opinion about the team that will take the trophy home. While most people can pick a side without any hesitation, it is usually either the team they support or one of the pre-tournament favorites.
One thing often ignored is the way the groups have been set up. It may look like it doesn’t matter so much at first but it is perhaps the most important factor in deciding who wins the world cup. For instance, Ivory Coast was rated as Africa’s brightest chance of making a break through at the tournament. However, their placement alongside heavyweights Portugal and Brazil has put them on the brink of elimination. Ghana, on the other hand, look like they will qualify for the next round despite being without their best player, Michael Essein.
The Dutch team has walked through the group stages, being the first team to qualify for the World Cup, but they are notoriously bad at the knock-out rounds. Teams like Italy and England are struggling in what appeared to be an easy group. In short, the World Cup is unpredictable.
So, how does one predict the unpredictable? The answer is simple. Let us start a process of elimination. There are only really 6 teams that are capable of winning the world cup. They are Brazil, Argentina, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Spain. These teams are the strongest in the competition on paper and despite minor slip-ups, still look like they will qualify for the next round.
Of the 6 teams mentioned above, Spain and Netherlands are notorious for producing excellent football players but failing, time and again, at using that talent to win major tournaments. Spain did win the European Championships in 2008, but that was just Europe. The World Cup is at a completely different level. The same is true for Netherlands, who have won the European Championships and never the World Cup.
So, the list is down to 4. Those who doubt the ability of these teams to win the World Cup need to look at the facts. Before this World Cup, these 4 teams have won 14 world cups between them. These teams have a culture of doing well at World Cups, and always have the lowest odds on landing the trophy.
Looking at the 4 teams individually; it is clear that Brazil and Argentina have the strongest squads. Despite struggling in qualifying, the Argentineans have undoubtedly the best attacking line-up in the tournament. With players such as Lionel Messi, Carlos Tevez, Higuain, Sergio Aguero and Diego Milito, few can argue that Argentina will be difficult to stop. Brazil, on the other hand, are a more balanced side but perhaps not as spoilt for choice as their Argentinean counterparts.
Germany and Italy are teams which have always been perceived as over-performers. Before the 2006 world cups, it was believed that neither would make the impact on the tournament that they did. Germany reached the semi-finals whereas the Italians won the tournament after beating Spain. The Italians, though, lack the quality that they usually possess but they are a very compact team which relies heavily on defending, something well suited to the format of the tournament. Germany looked irresistible in their first game, scoring 4 goals but they lost their next game to the Serbs 1-0 after Klose was sent off.
The easy answer to the question posed at the start of this article is that one of the teams including Argentina, Brazil, Italy or Germany will win the tournament. However, if one team were to be picked, it would have to be the Brazilians. Solid at the back, and devastating when going forward, the World Cup appears to be heading to Brazil yet again.
Tags: