Fantasy Football Bust Predictions
Players that are good performers on the field in the National Football League do not always perform well on fantasy rosters. It is important to be able to differentiate between a good football player and a good fantasy football pick, as the two are very different. The following are players who seem likely to be fantasy football busts for the 2010 season:
Matt Ryan:
The Atlanta Falcons quarterback may have been hurt last season and did not perform as well as he could have, but it doesn’t change the fact that he is not a good fantasy pick.
The Falcons are a good team, and Ryan has big-name recognition which deceives people into selecting him. Atlanta has a run-first offence and Ryan’s stats often reflect that. Ryan had just two games with two or more touchdowns last season. He has few chances to have touchdown passes as he ranks 20th in the NFL in terms of red-zone pass attempts. He also comes in 23rd in the rankings for passes over 20 yards.
So Ryan’s not throwing long and he’s not scoring when it’s short and should be avoided come fantasy draft day.
Tony Gonzalez:
Gonzalez invented the concept of an offensive tight end. Unfortunately, he now plays for the Falcons. After joining Atlanta, Gonzalez had his lowest target total in three years. If Ryan is not a good pick, it is hard to imagine anyone he throws to will be either.
Greg Olsen:
The Chicago Bears have a new offensive coordinator in Mike Martz, and the man loves to have his teams run. That means that tight end Olsen will be used a lot more for blocking rather than receiving.
This is great for the Bears, but will produce no points in most fantasy leagues, so forget about Olsen’s 2009 season of 54 receptions for 574 yards and five touchdowns.
Chad Ochocinco:
Ochocinco is one of the NFL’s premier showmen and trash talkers. His vibrant personality does not translate to great receiving statistics. Ochocinco had a very shaky fantasy season last year and was bailed out by freakishly high production against the nonexistent defence of the Detroit Lions.
This won’t be happening this year, as the Lions now have a good defence in place. Plus if a player needs to have extreme games just to bring his total production to an average sum, he shouldn’t be the type of player selected at a key position like wide receiver.
Reggie Wayne:
After being selected for the Pro Bowl in 2008, Wayne just could not reproduce the same performance in 2009. He had single digits in seven of the last nine games of last season. Plus his Indianapolis Colts are usually in such control by the end of the season that they rest players going into the playoffs. It’s important to have a receiver who will be around for the entire season, and Wayne just isn’t that guy.
Last season, Wayne had 12.6 yards per catch, his lowest average since 2003. He is famous and will generally go in the second round of most drafts, yet will have the production of a fourth-rounder.
Ronnie Brown:
Brown is overvalued because of his occasional impressive performances for the Miami Dolphins. Realistically, the running back has never had more than 1,008 yards in a season and has missed nine games in the last three seasons.
Brandon Marshall:
Now that Marshall is playing for the Miami Dolphins, he will have to adjust. While on the Broncos, Marshall was amazing at inside routes where he could catch the ball short and somehow produce a lot of yardage. He is now playing with a new quarterback who will not be throwing that riskily to Marshall immediately.
Marshall is also injury prone and has to face division rivals the New York Jets twice. It’s never smart to pick a receiver who will be facing cornerback Darrelle Revis even once, let alone twice.
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