Favourite winner probability again - if 30% of all favourites win, same as favourite has 30% winning chance?

Question

I closed my previously question before some interesting answers given. nsh_it's comment is exactly my point! Although the next color is independent, but the probability of 8 reds in a row must have bearing to next color?

Answer 1

This is more of a semantics question than an actual statistics/probability question.

If there have been 8 reds in a row, then it has NO effect on the next outcome.

In terms of favorites winning, if you average all races, the favorites win about 30%-33% of the time.

But if you look at 1-9 favorites, they win at a much higher percentage than 5-2 favorites.  And the fact that the favorite has lost the last 2 races has no bearing on the next race whatsoever.

If you flip coins, and measure strings of consecutive heads, say you get 3 in a row (1 in 8 chance).  The chances of getting a heads on the next flip is still 1 in 2.  (making the overall chances of getting 4 heads in a row 1 in 16).  The math all works out.

Answer 2

No bearing at all. I don't know what state you are in...but if there's a casino in your state..stand beside the wheel and watch. The next roll could be red. That's why all the systems for sale are scams. I've seen 13 blacks in a row..I've seen the the number 11 come up 5 times in a row. Figure those odds. It's my favorite number now and I still lose on it.

Answer 3

on any given day the best horse will win 33% of the time.

Answer 4

The dice have no memory.

Favourites 33%

2nd fav  18%

3rd 14.5

4th  10.5

5th 8

The price is a good indication of its chance. Divide the price into 86 and you will get a close idea of its percentage chance of winning.

eg average favourite dividend is $2.70.  86/2.7= 32 which is roughly correct.