Five reasons why USA can provide Ryder Cup upset
Tiger Woods has just endured the worst year of his career. Phil Mickelson's game is all over the place at the moment.
Dustin Johnson has blown two majors in the space of a couple of months. Jeff Overton and Rickie Fowler are yet to win an event on the PGA Tour. And Bubba Watson has already shown himself to be a hopelessly naive talent, prone to making poor decisions at crucial moments.
The evidence is compelling; come October, Corey Pavin's Ryder Cup line-up are gearing up for the mother of all gubbings. The markets agree that Europe are favourites, as do the pundits; heck, even Pavin has admitted his team are the scrappy little Davids to Monty's Goliaths this time.
Of course, robbed of their star man Tiger Woods last time round, Paul Azinger's winning team were afforded the same status in 2008 - not least by the Zinger himself, who had been eager to play up the team's standing as long-shots, Europe having won the previous three Ryder Cups.
Affecting to be the poor relation might have suited Azinger's purposes with the US on home turf. But on unfamiliar territory and with star man Tiger Woods in the kind of form unlikely to intimidate even the shonkiest of Sunday drivers, this time the USA are surely up against it, even before a ball is struck?
That's the overriding conventional wisdom, and we're not here to say it's wrong, exactly. But because forewarned is forearmed, let's look at the factors that could give Pavin's pack the chance to put something over on Monty next month.
1 The European team.
Strong as it is, the home team could unquestionably be stronger still. This isn't quibbling about wildcard selections; we can accept that there are at least arguments why Padraig Harrington merited inclusion at the expense of Paul Casey, for instance.
The qualification system itself doesn't guarantee the most capable side, however, since it seeks to give players focusing on the European Tour a chance to qualify for the team. That might be understandable, but assuming the ultimate goal is to produce the team with the best players, it is counter-productive. Gifted as they are, Ross Fisher and Peter Hanson are surely lesser players than Casey or Justin Rose, but the current system has found room for the former, but not the latter.
Maybe it's churlish to complain about unfortunate omissions with so many genuinely good players on the team. Except that for all his vaunted talent, Rory McIlroy has won exactly once this year, adding to his solitary victory on the European Tour last year. The Ulsterman has also missed four cuts and played several undeniably poor rounds in 2010.
McIlroy downplayed the importance of this competition last year, and just days ago he admitted he'd rather win a WGC event; while actually competing in the tournament may change his opinion, the 21-year-old is certainly unreliable, and potentially somewhat uninterested. He's hardly nailed on to shine here.
Lee Westwood is coming back from injury. Graeme McDowell has been ordinary since his victory at the US Open. Ian Poulter has looked very far from being a world-beater of late. Padraig Harrington can only have been selected on the strength of past performances, rather than current glories. Only Martin Kaymer looks to be in really strong form right now.
Those are the biggest names; of the remainder, is, say, Miguel Ángel Jiménez (won twice, halved three, lost seven at previous Ryder Cups )really any more imposing a character than Matt Kuchar, who managed to lead at the recent BMW Championship for two days despite playing with flu so bad he could barely talk at the post-game interviews?
In short, the European team may be hampered by the exclusion of two of its finest, and the form of some players who are set to make an appearance.
2 Major experience.
Do majors won really count for any kind of psychological advantage? Maybe, maybe not - but Monty chose Ireland's Padraig Harrington over Paul Casey, citing Harrington's three trophies.
And for all the talk of Europe's superiority to the USA, America's tally of majors adds up to 21, compared to Europe's five. Tiger Woods' presence is always going to skew such a comparison unfairly, but take Woods out of the equation and the USA are still ahead, with seven to Europe's five.
Woods aside, Stewart Cink, Zach Johnson, Jim Furyk and Phil Mickelson have all won majors, while European major winners are limited to Harrington with three, and Kaymer and McDowell, each of whom won earlier this year. If nothing else, that major experience suggests confidence on the world stage; stature. Something that Europe is a little short on.
3 Montgomerie.
Two years ago, Nick Faldo's flawed leadership and bungling tactics helped Europe to failure at Valhalla. Colin Montgomerie may or may not be more tactically astute than his predecessor, but with his inability to let petty grievances go - see the ongoing row with Ian Poulter a few years back - a temper that's quick to spark, and a habit of saying, on occasion, what he really thinks when mild duplicity would make life easier, Monty can be a liability. And that's leaving aside the shenanigans of his private life earlier this year.
Certainly, if things start well for Europe, Monty will be at his most charming. But should the USA start to gain the upper hand, you can be sure the volatile European captain may become rather less accommodating in his dealings with the press. The Scot's temperament has always been his Achilles heel, and the fact that's he's not actually playing scarcely means Montgomerie will remain all sunshine and lollipops, should the wheels start to come off.
One of this year's vice-captains, Paul McGinley, stated earlier this year that captains can win, and just as surely lose Ryder Cups. Montgomerie, for his part, has played down the role recently, saying: "I do wonder if the role of the captain is overplayed, since we never get to hit a shot." Is Monty just being modest - or is the man once dubbed Mrs Doubtfire beginning to have some doubts?
4 Rickie Fowler.
Much depends on how the 21-year-old handles the big occasion of course, but in the absence of Anthony Kim, Fowler is expected to fulfil a similar role to the star of the 2008 Ryder Cup. His boyish optimism and infectious, can-do attitude is expected to buoy the spirits of his older, less rambunctious team mates.
Fowler has finished as runner-up three times in his brief time on the PGA Tour - this is his first full season, though he played some events on the PGA Tour Fall Series last year. Phil Mickelson is a big fan of the youngster, lobbying captain Corey Pavin to include Fowler on the team, and the two may well be paired together. That could make for a dynamic partnership, should both men play to the full extent of their ability.
Fowler has another reason to shine at Celtic Manor too; with Rory McIlroy thus far being touted as the future of golf, the Californian will surely be keen to demonstrate there's more than one contender for that title.
5 Tiger Woods.
Woods' record at the Ryder Cup is unusually weak; theories abound, that he isn't a "team player," that his very presence intimidates fellow team members, that he just doesn't care.
The intimidation theory may have been valid in previous years, but with Woods playing very poorly indeed at times this season, the threat of being overawed may no longer a problem. Woods himself has said he doesn't understand where the idea that he is apathetic about the competition comes from; even if that's slightly disingenuous, the 34-year-old is surely sincere in wanting to perform well at Celtic Manor.
Beyond establishing Woods as a winner once again, a good showing at Newport will go a long way towards improving Woods' badly tarnished image. If Woods can inspire admiration and public goodwill through his sporting performances, his downfall outside of golf will assume less importance.
And if he can inspire the USA to what many consider an unlikely win in Wales, the 14-time major winner can emerge from the wreckage of 2010 with a renewed sense of optimism. The competition Woods is supposed not to care about could prove to be one of the most important of his career - if he can produce, of course.
On a final note, if none of the above has convinced you, bear in mind that in six of the past nine Ryder Cups, the odds-on favourite lost. With or without Tiger firing on all cylinders - he wasn't needed last time - this US side surely has the talent to put a dent in Montgomerie's proud Ryder Cup record. But at least the Scot is known for keeping a calm head when things start to go awry, right? Oh.
All of a sudden, that big bucks bet on the US to romp to a landslide victory doesn't look quite so naive. David Cameron, Brien Cowen, Angela Merkel, Silvio Berlusconi - your boys could be just about to take one h**l of a beating.
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