Fold or call this poker bet?

Question

I was playing at a 1/3 limit game at a casino. I got dealt A-7 on the big blind. All but three others fold, and then I checked to see the flop. The flop comes out A-3-3. A woman bets $15. One of the other two folds, the second calls. I call. Turn comes out 6. The woman bets $15 again, and the other remaining person folds. I called, wanting to see if she could give me a bit more info on the river. The river came out an A, so now the board shows A-3-3-6-A. I now have aces full. Now, the woman goes all in, with a stack of nearly $400. Immediately, red flags went off in my mind. I actually put her on quads, and thought she was trying to disguise her bet as a bluff. But... I also knew the chances of her having pocet 3's were minimal. I called, she turned over pocket 3's, i lose. So, my question is this. In a hand where you see such minimal odds that you are behind, do you make the call as I did even though I put her on 3's, or do you lay it down? Bad beat or bad play on my part?

Answer 1

Wow tough hand.  I would have done the same thing you did.  Rarely do you see 4 of a kind come out but you should have raised her hand to see if she was really bluffing the first time around.

Answer 2

have to agree with Evox here.  she had her quads on the flop and would have perhaps even counter raised you then you could have bailed or even if she called your raise on the flop when you got your aces full done the same raise again and bailed for perhaps cheaper than calling the all in that she waited to play.

Answer 3

you made the right play. the chances of her having quads are much lower than the chances of just splitting the pot with another Ax, or winning the pot vs 3x. I would estimate it like this:

33: 1% of the time

Any 3: 50% of the time

Another A: 30% of the time (the chances are lower here since you already have one ace.)

A high pair (KK, QQ), or possibly trip 6's, or a pure bluff: the rest, or 19% of the time.

Therefore, you have about a 69% chance of winning, or 99% chance of winning or tying. If you lay down this hand, you will lose far more than you win.

[edit] regarding the 2nd half of your question, yes, you were wrong to call if you are sure you were beat.

interesting footnote, as I was answering this question, this hand came up:

blinds 10/20

My hand: As Js, cutoff seat. 6 players call, SB raises to 40. Everybody calls.

Flop: K Q 10, 2 hearts. I flop the nut straight. Betting goes like this:

Check-150-Call-Raise 300-Raise 500-Call-Call-Call-Fold-Call

Turn: 10

All in-All in-All in-All in

Sb turns over 10 10 to take everything.

[edit] regarding the third part of your question, no, you are not a bad player, and there's very little you could have done to stop this. the odds were in your favor, you didn't have a good enough read, and you had a monster hand.

Here's another hand that just came up today:

My hand, SB: AA.

Player 4 raises to 4X the BB. I just call.

Flop: 2 2 2

I go all in. #4 calls and shows QQ.

Odds of him having any deuce: .0001% (who raises with a deuce?)

Odds of a tie: something like 1 in 400k.

I ignored the miniscule odds that he might have a deuce to make the play.

However, look at it from his perspective:

He had about a 20-30% chance that i had unpaired high cards.

Also a very low chance to have the last deuce.

If i had a pair, he had a 11 out of 13 chance it was lower than his.

And, even if i had kk or aa, he had a 10% chance of hitting a queen.

Overall, his chances of having the best hand (as in your case) trumped the fact that i had a better hand.

It's like having aces, hitting trips on the flop, and somebody sucks out a flush. your odds of having the best hand on the flop and the number of outs you have make it a good call even if you lose:

Your hand: AA

Flop: A 8 2, 2 hearts (including the ace here)

Their chance of making the flush: 35%

Your chance of winning if they don't: 65%

Your chance of hitting the full house:

On the turn: 1 out of 7, plus quads, 1 out of 6

On the river, if the turn doesn't pair: 1 in 4.5, plus quads, 1 in 4.

Therefore, even if they make the flush (35%): you have about a 20% chance of being able to beat it anyway, thus making their actual winning chance much smaller. (35% X 20% - 35% = 28%.)

Answer 4

I would say that it is bad play on your part.  There were so many hands that she could have beat you with.  On the flop... One 3 or any ace with a higher kicker would have beat you.  There actually weren't many hands that you could beat all the way down except maybe a pocket pair like Kings.  However, I would say it's bad luck... not a bad beat... she didnt suck out.  She had the best hand the whole time.  Sometimes... luck just sucks!

Answer 5

pretty tough but i would have done just the same as you did..if the old hag looked so loosen up i would have never suspected a good poker player.probably just tough luck for you!cheers

Answer 6

You did the right thing. You had Full House, Aces over 3's. The best one you could get looking at what was on the table. If she has been playing loose, then chances are she only has trips on the 3. Nothing more.

Not only that, but she had four of a kind since the flop and only bet marginal amounts, nothing to think she had more than trips. Maybe she did it that way on purpose, but i doubt it if she was a loose player.

I would have gone all in regardless of the blinds or stacks left.

You did everything right, you had a bad beat.

Unfortunately, that's poker for ya!

Answer 7

I had a VERY similar thing happen in a live game about 8 months ago... except I hit quad 6's on the flop.  so I did what she did and slow played it til the end and sucked up about $250.