French chances of winning French Open title
France may not have experienced quite the same wait for a French champion at Roland Garros as the British have at Wimbledon, but the years are slipping away since Yannick Noah won the French Open title in 1983.
And with Spain’s Rafael Nadal and Switzerland’s Roger Federer seemingly making the clay-court Grand Slam a race in two, it’s tough to see that 27-year drought breaking this year.
On the women’s side of the draw, Mary Pierce provided France with their first and so far only French singles champion of the Open era back in 2000, but with Amelie Mauresmo (who admittedly struggled at Roland Garros) retiring last year, the hosts will need to rely on a breakthrough Grand Slam from one of their women if Pierce’s efforts are to be equalled in 2010.
So, who is France relying on to provide the home crowd with a home-grown champion in a little over a fortnight’s time?
Men’s draw
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga leads the French charge to Roland Garros but while the powerful 25-year-old has been a regular in the round of 16 and the quarter-finals this season, since reaching back-to-back semi-finals at the Australian Open and at the Open 12 in Marseille, Tsonga has failed to kick on in the later stages of the tournament.
By the time Tsonga had reached the semis at Melbourne Park, consecutive five-set matches against Nicolas Almagro and then Novak Djokovic left him a spent force, and the 2008 Australian Open runner-up was dispatched by Roger Federer with almost casual ease.
Injury has in the past wreaked havoc with Tsonga’s French Open chances, and 2010 is set to be only the third time he has contested Roland Garros but unless this exciting player can rediscover a way to win at the business end of the tournament, it’s hard to see the world No. 10 outlasting Nadal, Federer and a host of clay-court specialists to claim the title this year.
Aside from Tsonga, France’s other big chance in the men’s draw is Gael Monfils. This particular Frenchman has enjoyed some success at Roland Garros in the past couple of years, reaching the semi-finals in 2008 and the quarters last year. On both occasions it was a meeting with Federer that brought about his downfall.
The world No. 15 has had far from a perfect preparation for this year’s French Open, missing the first two of the three clay-court Masters 1000 events - the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and the Internazionali BNL d'Italia in Rome – before returning to the court with a vengeance at the Mutua Madrilena Madrid Open, where he didn’t drop a set until his defeat by Nadal in the quarter-finals.
It’s not unreasonable to suggest that Monfils would need to beat one or both of Federer and Nadal to win the French Open title this year, and his track record (0-5 against Federer and 1-6 against Nadal) suggests that’s asking just a little too much of the 23-year-old.
With world No. 32 Gilles Simon withdrawing from Roland Garros due to a lack of preparation as a result of injury, that leaves 39th-ranked Julien Benneteau (who at last year’s Paris Masters proved he could defeat Federer) and 68th-ranked Richard Gasquet as perhaps the best of the outside chances.
Women’s draw
Before Madrid, Aravane Rezai wouldn’t have featured too prominently in discussions of potential French Open champions, but after she overpowered Justine Henin, Jelena Jankovic and Venus Williams on her way to the title there the new world No. 16 suddenly looms as perhaps the best local hope – in both the men’s and women’s draws – of providing a local champion at Roland Garros.
If the 23-year-old can string together a fortnight of the same blistering pace and power at the French Open, the title is hers for the taking. Anyone who watched Rezai in Madrid could perhaps justifiably get carried away with her chances, but it would require a big improvement from a player who is yet to make it beyond the fourth round at Roland Garros or any other major.
Rezai may have played like a Grand Slam champion at Madrid, but she’s now got to play exactly the same way in Paris to win the title. And that’s the big question hovering over her chances.
Other than Rezai, France will be looking to their top-ranked player, Marion Bartoli, to deliver a marked improvement on her past results at Roland Garros. The world No. 14 has only once in nine attempts progressed beyond the second round at her home Grand Slam, when she reached the fourth round in 2007, but that double-handed forehand did take her all the way to the Wimbledon final in the same year.
One win in the clay court season leading up to the French Open, however, does not bode well for Bartoli’s chances of a breakout performance at her home Grand Slam this year.
All things considered, France might have to wait at least another year until a local lifts the silverware at their home Grand Slam.
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