From a betting angle, how best to use RP broodmare sires 'nicks' info?

Question

loads of info here, too much for one man alone

Answer 1

I'd agree with most of the points raised here.  The best thing for you to do would be to start studying the broodmare sire stats.  Look at what crosses work well (for example Sadler's Wells out of a Darshaan mare is a well known example - this cross has produced top class horses like High Chapparal.  Also Mr Prospector line stallions out of Northern Dancer line mares).  You should also try to look at the actual sire of the horse rather than the broodmare sire: he puts in 50% of the genes so will always be a factor!  Study a few sires to start with and learn what ground their progeny tend top like and what distances.  Then you can start looking more in depth at things like broodmare sires.

If you can get your hands on a Darley Stallion Book - they always put the "nicks" in the back of here to show what crosses work for their stallions - it is a very useful reference guide!  You can request a brochure from their website: http://www.darley.co.uk/request_media_pa...

Answer 2

Karin has a point, but I think she stretches it too far.  Nick patterns and pedigree information can be an important piece of the puzzle.  I think it is especially important when a horse is being asked to do something for the first time.  So I guess the answer is to use them as another datum to be analyzed and placed in the context of the race, along with the horses record at a given distance, running times, class level and so on.

Answer 3

YOU CANNOT BEAT THE BOOKIES!!!!!!!! trust me, I'm a bookie manager and I get a d**n good bonus twice a year.  Don't waste your money!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Answer 4

The only way I can see bloodline information, including "nicking" data, being of any use to a punter, would be in a maiden race where none of the horses has ever started and the workout information is very minimal.  And in such a situation I'd elect to pass on the race as unplayable, rather than try to bet it.

Once a horse has gotten to the races and established a record, breeding and bloodline theories are pretty much moot.  Sprint-bred horses have won at distance races, and horses noted for stamina and late development have sired precocious 2-year-olds that win at sprint distances.  Horses with pedigree "nicks" that are highly touted never win a race, while horses with crosses that nobody believes in win stakes.  

In the ocean of variables that one considers when handicapping a race, bloodlines and nicks are swallowed by the enormity of the other factors to be considered, primarily the recent past performances in races of the horses entered.

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After reading Edward K's answer to your question, I have to say that his comment about pedigree being a factor when a horse is being asked to do something for the first time is a valid point.  If you have, for example, a quality stakes horse that has never run on the grass before entered in a turf stakes, knowing that the sire or dam have produced other runners that have done well on the turf is something to consider.

Still, I'd have to say that at least IMO that would be a minor consideration, compared to something like published workouts on a turf course or the trainer's record in sending out turf runners.

A lot depends on your philosophy on risk in betting, and what factors (if any) make you decide that a race is unplayable.  While it's true that you can sometimes get a big price by taking a chance on a horse that is doing something for the first time (first time on turf, first time over a muddy track, first time at a distance beyond sprint, etc.), you're taking a large risk.  If the information available to me is so minimal that all I have to go on is bloodlines and breeding theories, my tendency is to pass on the race or only make a small bet.  Life is long, there are many races, budget is limited so I like to make sure I have as much information as possible before I bet.  But then, I've found I can enjoy watching a race without having a betting interest in it, and your mileage may vary.

It's all grist for the mill.  IMHO each race is a learning experience, and in 40 years of watching races I'm still trying to figure the game out.  God willing, I never will, because wouldn't that be boring? ;-))