Gambling Plan with borrowed money?

Question

I expect a lot of people will tell me this is a terrible idea. However, I want to get some feedback on if it has any credibility.

I'm going to Vegas soon. I don't have a lot of cash right now, but I'm starting a new job and will be making decent money. So I'm thinking of taking out a $2,000 cash advance on my credit card and adding $1k. (It has a $10k limit, so it won't be maxed out) Then when I'm in Vegas, I'll go to the roulette table and bet $1000 on one of the thirds (It pays out 3X and has a 31.6% chance of hitting) Assuming that I get it, I'll make $2k, walk away and pay my credit card off (And yes, I will walk away because I have a lot of self control) Now if I don't hit, I'll do it again. If I win then, then I will be up $1000. If I don't, I'll do it again. If I hit then, I'll break even. If not, I'm down all that money. But chances are good I'll win or break even.

What are your thoughts on this?

Answer 1

I think you have an excellent idea but have chosen the wrong casino game.  How about trying this in the sportsbook or baccarat.  The idea only works in the short run through...if you do it enough times you will eventually hit the unlucky streak and go broke.

Answer 2

The main flaw in your plan is simple mathematics, similar to the main flaw in the Martingale system.  Both plans count on the fact that a losing streak is 'unlikely'.  

In the case of Martingale, a 6-7 bet losing streak bottoms you out, and anything else wins you a tiny profit, so you get lots of tiny profits, but sooner or later you lose everything.  

In your case, you're counting on not getting a THREE LOSS streak!  And it's not even a coin flip situation!  And not only would you lose everything, you'd lose ALL your money, plus DOUBLE THAT in borrowed money!!!

Yea, I'm gonna go with ... 'bad idea.'

Answer 3

That is an awful plan. Not because of the borrowed money but because that betting strategy is very negative EV. -36% actually. Which is horrible. So many better options.

The problem with your thinking is that you think thirds pay 3 to 1 when they actually pay 2 to 1. Thus all your math is off.

32% of the time you'll lose all $3000

14.8% of the time you'll break even

21.6% of the time you'll make $1000

31.4% of the time you'll make $2000

Answer 4

sounds dumb. just play poker or blackjack or craps your money will last longer and you'll hae a better time. You cant trust casino's and odds

Answer 5

How would you feel if you lost $3000 in less than two minutes?

The chances that you will break even are mediocre at best. But do you really want to risk that much money just to come out even?

The chance that you will lose everything is much greater than you might think.

When you play one third, there are 26 numbers that will lose for you. The odds that one of those 26 numbers will come out three times in a row is (26/38)^3 , or about 32%.

Smart gambling is about playing right in the long run, not hoping for a one-time hit.

Answer 6

SELF CONTROL? You are thinking of pulling $2,000 off of your credit card and you say you have self control? Am I missing something here?

Or you could loan me $1,020.

$1,000 to buy in a seat at The World Series Of Poker and I'll double it for you. And $20 to buy a bat to hit you over the head and try and knock some sense in to you.

I could get $3000 to last me at least 3 weeks in Vegas (minus room and board) and have a great time doing it.

Even if you tried something similar with just your original $1,000 split up to $333 per bet, its still not a good idea.

There is a very informative program that comes on The Travel Channel called Vegas: Sucker Bets. Look for this, they play it all the time. Or something similar.

Theres a poker site through carbonpoker.com that has a Roulette table. You can deposit real money there and try it with less money to see how it doesn't work.

Answer 7

Let's see:  Chances of you hitting on one of the first three spins.

12/38 + 26/38*12/38 + 26/38*26/38*12/38 =

0.316 + 0.216 + 0.148 = 0.680

That means you have a 68% chance of at least breaking even, but a 32% chance of losing $3000!  Why would you take that risk?

Answer 8

I think you are completely crazy for gambling money you don't have. You are also playing a game that doesn't pay out that well. If you want my advice, only bet what you can afford. No more than that.

Answer 9

Despite your plan and your assertion that you possess self control, you sound like a desperate, compulsive gambler.

   It is often not a good idea to play with money you own. Money you don't own or have to borrow shouldn't find it's way to the gambling tables because chances are you'll lose it.

   I can tell from you quoting the odds that you're no stranger to gambling so you should know that the house always has the advantage.

   You're trying to make your trip sound like a winning proposition when in fact even if you were to "win" by the time you've paid for transportation and lodging, you wouldn't be ahead.

  I also have to mention that your second to last sentence says "chances are good i'll win or break even". You might be fooling yourself, but your not fooling me. If you have 31.6% chance of hitting, the casino has the other 68.4 %. At over double your odds, what kind of math makes you think you have good odds?

Answer 10

That was a very well, thought out and well articulated plan. Overruled! You were right to think that it's a bad idea. Cash advances from your credit card start accruing interest, immediately. Again, that's immediately. Why borrow money that accrues 23% interest or more from the get-go? Roulette, while fun, is a game of chaos. No one can really know where the marble will stop. Chances are you will lose too. Then what? Think very hard and be very clear about this.The house has an incredible edge. Look for games that offer the LEAST house edge and play them instead. Learn their rules too. And remember: The house always wins. Have you started your new job yet? If so, use the money from your "decent money" as your gambling budget. If not, you'll have to dip into your savings account instead. Make a budget and stick to it too. When you're done, you are DONE. Never try to "win back" any losses, because you will lose more.

Edit: Even when you break even, you still owe the credit card the advance PLUS interest, so you'll be in the red. Don't forget you have to win enough AND then some.