Global Warming doesn't make sense to me...?

Question

How is it that the weather man cannot 100% accurately predict next week's weather and we suddenly know how to "model" Earth's climate and predict where it's going?

Clearify.

Answer 1

it doesnt make any sense to me either..

o.0?

Answer 2

Weather is not the same thing as climate. If you don't understand the basic difference between the two, then there's no wonder as to why it doesn't make sense to you.

Climate and weather are actually two different fields of study, and the level of predictability is comparably different. Think of this as the difference between trying to predict the height of the fifth wave from now that will come splashing up the beach versus predicting the height of tomorrow's high tide.

Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time, generally around 30 years. This averaging over time removes the random and unpredictable behavior of weather. This by no means says that it is necessarily easy to predict climate changes, but clearly seizing on the weatherman's weekly forecast failures to cast doubt on a climate model's 100 year projection is an argument of ignorance.

Answer 3

You are not suppose to use your brain in this forum - just read the propaganda put out by the leftists and deny any opposition.

If you understand that Earth's weather is driven by oceans (El Nino & La Nina)  - which the alarmists have vehemently denied to promote their CO2 forcing 'Theory' - but now claim that La Nina has cooled their predictions.

A good read (especially Figure 9) shows flat or falling temperatures while CO2 continues to rise = Disproving their CO2 forcing Theory.:

http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Con...

This has made the Alarmists irrational and inflammatory - they will only read one perspective - denouncing all others.

Warmists in Frantic Effort to Save their Failing Theory

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog

Answer 4

The weather is predicted, so far as I am aware, from changes in the atmosphere. Using weather balloons and (I think) satalite imagary, they are able to pick up subtle nuances in temperature and wind ect.

We can't predict where the climate is going, but there are changes that we have made to the atmosphere that are rapidly increasing the temperature, such as the increase of carbon dioxide (which, with other greenhouse gasses) creates a barrier which prevents solar energy from escaping, which increases the temperature.

Besides, predicting the weather is based on looking fowards, climate change 'models' are based on things that have already happened in the past.

Answer 5

Exactly - No one can predict the future.  There are some that call themselves "scientist" who claim they have the computers that can help them read the tea leaves, the entrails, the chicken bones to tell them what the future will be, but in truth this is nothing more than a guess.

No one knows if it will be warmer or colder anytime in the future.  They have as much chance of being right as a coin flip.

Answer 6

Most longterm forecasts in any field have a TREND, but the actual performance is made up of peaks and valleys. It is not a straight line up or down.

Just look at any stock market chart on any TV news any night.

Next week's weather is one of the peaks or valleys. It may rain on Wednesday but maybe by Monday. The total might still be more than the average for that week of the year.

So your question rather confuses quantity with timing.

Modelling for the future also does not say WHICH future week the temperature will be 2 degrees higher. Modelling looks at the big picture processes that affect the weather, and how they affect each other.....wind: patterns speeds and temperatures, ocean: currents speeds directions and temperatures, light: reflection from snow ice or dark water, rainfall: timing quantity and location.

What this modelling is showing is that the way things are developing in these processes, they are each causing the others to move in a spiral towards a much dryer and hotter world.

A further step in modelling also shows how THAT will fairly soon after turn into an ICE AGE. Read up on the physics involved, it is too much to explain to you here.

Answer 7

We are not 100% certain.  We can't ever be 100% certain.  Are you 100% certain that you are going to school tomorrow?  Couldn't you wake up sick or an emergency arise that keeps you from school?  Summer break could even happen!

The predictions of warming used the laws of physics to predict what in rise in CO2 will do to climate - not statistics.  You can use these laws to make pretty accurate predictions of the world around you.  You can predict how fast a hammer will fall if you drop it off a ladder, how much energy it takes for a rocket to get into orbit, how much time it takes for a car to stop.  Scientist have used some of the "natural laws" for centuries and they work well.

Predicting climate is much more complicated that these examples, but it applies the same types of principles.  Predicting weather (what is happening at a point in time at a specific location) is actually tougher that climate for the Earth.  Climate is the long-term average of weather over a lot of areas..

Using the laws of physics we are able to accurately predict past changes due to natural factors. We can compare to see how "good" our model is.  We then predict what future changes due to natural factors should be.  Then we can include the human factors that may contribute - such as CO2 emission from fossil fuels, land use and albedo changes- and compare the two to see what influence people should have on climate.

You're right that it is not 100% accurate, but it does give us insight into how things may change.  A lot of scientist are worried that the change may be harmful.  They have determined through the model that people contribute a large proportion of global warming that will result in climate change. If so, this means people can reduce the amount of global warming driving the change.

Answer 8

One thing I can say for certain is that in regards to global climate change, we're not dealing in absolutes.  There is no certainty built into the process, we have barely identified the process.

That said, the foibles of trying to predict climate and climate change are considerable.  We can establish trends and generate predictations that serve as tools to drive and implement mitigation and adaptations.  As models improve, we come up with better predictions, but they are just that.  Predictions, not a road map, as variables and gaps in our knowldedge exist.

A lot of sites available to help this make sense to you.  I've provided a few that I hope will be useful to you.

Answer 9

It's often true in science that short term behavior is "noisy" and unpredictable, while long term behavior IS predictable.

This graph shows that nicely.  The year to average is "noisy".  But the 5 year average is quite predictable.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

The reason is that the factors that make the short term behavior unpredictable (the "weather") move temperature both up and down.  Observe the data over a longer time and they average out to no change, letting you see the change due to long term global warming.

Radioactivity is another example.  This is quite common in science.