Good fantasy baseball trade?

Question

I get:

Xavier Nady

Micah Owings

Johan Santana

I give up:

Adrian Gonzalez

Tom Glavine

Salomon Torres

Rest of my team:

Jason Varitek

Kelly Johnson

Kevin Youkilis

Yunel Escobar

J.D. Drew

Jermaine Dye

Shane Victorino

Ian Kinsler

Miguel Cabrera

Andre Ethier

Edgar Renteria

Eric Brynes-DL

Cliff Lee

Todd Wellemeyer

Jonathan Papelbon

Brian Fuentes

Aaron Cook

Dice-K -DL

Ryan Dempster

Dontrelle Willis

Jake Peavy-DL

His team:

Geovany Soto

Casey Cotchman

Brandon Phillips

Aubrey Huff

Derek Jeter

Micheal Bourn

Randy Winn

Cristian Guzman

Orlando Cabrera

Alex Gordon

Edwin Encarnacion

Ryan Zimmerman-DL

Jayson Werth-DL

Brian Wilson

Jesse Carlson

Carlos Marmol

Ben Sheets

Justin Duchscherer

Ted Lilly

Joey Devine-DL

Accept, decline, or possible counter offers.

Answer 1

Well, let's look at the perceived best player in this trade first and that would be Johan Santana.  In the last three years, Santana has establish himself as the premiere pitcher to own in our little fantasy world. With a strikeout rate second to only Jake Peavy,  a walk ratio second to only Roy Halladay, and a hit rate second to only Carlos Zambrano, Santana is at least the best lefty in fantasy baseball.  Let us also note that his Home Run rate in that same stretch stands at 1.03.  This year, those categories already mentioned are un-Santana like: For starters, his K/9 rate is a respectable 7.82 instead of a spectacular 9.43, BB/9 is over two, instead of under 2, hit rate is at a whopping 8.60 rather than a great 7.22 and that home run rate in 2008 is at a terrifying 1.32.  He's still a top 15 pitcher in my fantasy points, H2H league as his 2008 figures are very similar to the three year run that John Smoltz has had.  Unfortunately, the home run rate is very identical to Jason Marquis' three-year rate.  Because of these numbers, Santana becomes your third best pitcher, but could easily be #1.  With Peavy and Dice-K returning in the near future, and you are 5-deep with elite SPs.  Let's not ignore the emergence of Wellenmeyer, the running luck of Cook, the dominance at home from Dempster, and the return of Fuentes at closer and your pitching staff is currently one that has every owner in your league worried.  

However, is getting Santana worth giving up Adrian Gonzalez, which is basically what this trade boils down to?  Gonzalez is no fluke by any stretch of the imagination.  He's on pace to shatter his 2008 projected HR and RBIs.  His on-base% is similar to what he hit in his breakout 2006 and he's been able to go over .360 in that category at several stops in the minors.  The slugging % is a bit peculiar as it stands at a career high .578 and the only time he had it above .550 was in 2005 when he was at AAA-Oklahoma.  Also, in the minors, he would hit doubles at a 2-1 ratio, most often than not, compared to home runs.  In 2006-2007, his doubles/home run ratio was hovering at 1.5.  The difference this year is that he's finally at a 1:1 and that leads me to believe that the 26 year-old is not peaking, but getting better.  He's on pace to smash 45 homers and drive in 146 RBIs.  WOW!

When I initially looked at the trade, my knee-jerk reaction was to accept it because of two things:  without looking at rosters, I would've had to assume you were looking for pitching help and this deal would've definitely had helped you in that department (I thought to myself, this trade is definitely to your full advantage).  Second, the one worry about Gonzo is that he plays with a horrible team and his home-road splits are a concern.  The batting average at home is not even a mean .270 and the OPS goes from being well over 1.000 to being a decent .852.  Plus, you have Youkilis to replace him at 1B.  But when one looks beyond the splits, you have an elite power hitting 1B in your hands who is on his way to post his best year in his ever-growing MLB career.  My final trade evaluation is to not accept this deal.  

You have a good team but the one concern is the OF where I'm worried that the OF might cost you from winning a championship.  You try to fix your OF problem with Xavier Nady, but I'm not convinced he's the guy you're looking for.  Owings is another good pitcher you would be receiving, but getting two quality pitchers in return is just overkill on your team.  I know you're hurting at pitching, but the way I see it, you have six very good pitchers and a wildcard in Willis, while you wait for Dice-K and Peavy to comeback.  Instead of getting another pitcher by ridding yourself of arguably your best power hitter, why not attempt to upgrade your OF instead?  

Felipe

http://www.ultimatefantasysite.com

Answer 2

I'm not quite sure what you are thinking really.  I have played fantasy baseball for quite some time and you are giving up way too much for Santana.  His K's are great, but he isn't winning much and his ERA is higher than it has been for a long time.  You need to keep Gonzalez.  I hate the Padres, but he leads the NL in RBI's and the closest Padre to him is 30 RBI's behind.  Keep Gonzalez and drop Johan from the trade and you have a decent deal.

Answer 3

good trade.  you could use a solid starter like santana.

Answer 4

Bad Trade. I would stick with what you got.