Hand of the day IV?

Question

this one, i think, is an extremely tough decision:

it's an 8-handed cash game, $1-2, with effective stacks of $250...you pick up A-A from early position and pop it up to $6, and get only one caller, the big blind...he is a good player who mixes his game up very well...the flop comes down 10-8-2 with two spades, and your opponent leads right into you for $15...you raise it up to $45, and now your opponent comes back over the top for another $60, making it a total of $105 to go...what do you put your opponent on, and what is the play?

Answer 1

Tough question, would have to know more about the player. If it's a player that likes to bet draws a lot I might think hes on a flush draw. Worst case scenario is he hit a set, but somthing like A10 is also possible. Also if i had the Ace of spades in my hand or not it might influence my decision.

Answer 2

Oppenents range:

88,22, TT, AT, KT, 9J, 9sJs, 8Ts, 7s9s, 6s7s, Qs9s, TsJs, QsTs, JsQs, 9sTs, AsQs, AsJs, KsQs.

Your equity against this range is 57%%, and more than enough. Add JJ-KK and your equity goes up 15%. The only hands you remove from your oppenents hands that make your equity drop alot are AT and KT  (both suited and unsuited), but they are part of your oppenents range right?

Honestly, I think this is an incredibly easy decision. Get that **** IN. You are ahead of this range enough.

Answer 3

I would put them on to a set. Either 8's or 2's.

I think he would of have raised with pocket 10's (or higher) in the big blind against 1 person so I'd rule that out. Just calling with 8's or 2's for $6 is more likely.

I'd also eliminate the draw and Ace  10 possibilty with the size of the bet. If hes on a draw, hes not playing it well cause hes wasting a free card by raising. And if its Ace 10 it seems like a huge raise with a decent pair high kicker.

The only other possibility is if its the 8 of spades and 2 of spades on board And he paired the 10 that is spades and the Ace of spades for the nut draw. But then again, why waste a potential free card.

The raise is $105 to go which is a substantial ammount. Almost half our stack. Which to me says he has a good hand and he wants us to pay to out draw him.

We reraised to $45 to see were we stand and his reraise tells us that we are beat.

This is not considered a great play, but this is exactly what I do...

I would tell them that I am making a monster fold and also tell them I think they have a set and I would show the Aces. This shows a sign of respect to thier bet. And by telling them you are letting them know you're a good player and you have them pegged. They are going to have to play top notch to outplay us into blowing our chips on mediocre hands.

Although showing is not recommended, in situations like this, sometimes I think its a good play. It can open people up and sometimes they show or talk about it a little. If you don't say this and show, they don't tell you or show you anything. Friendly poker chat at the tables makes this easier. I think it's always a great idea to be nice and somewhat talkative (but not too much) at the tables.

The toughest part about Aces is letting them go. Because 90 + % of all flops look like your ahead.

I think Daniel Negranu says it best with Aces, "It's just a pair."

After the flop, I always want to be in a better position than just a pair.

Great question. And a very tough lay down.