Hand of the day VI?

Question

we're on a roll with cash game questions

another 8-handed, $1-2 cash game with effective stacks of $1,500...a middle position player limps in, you limp behind right behind him with 6-6, and the cutoff, a very good but hyperaggressive player raises it to $11...everyone folds back to you, and you make the call...the flop comes down Q-6-5 rainbow, you check, your opponent bets $27, and you decide to just call...the turn is the Kh putting a backdoor flush draw out there, you check once again continuing your trap, and your opponent bets $67, and after deliberating for a while, you decide to once again just call and continue to throw rope to your opponent...the river is the 4d and you check one more time, and now your opponent bets $134...my question to you guys is twofold:

1) what do you think our opponent's range is?

2) do we raise for value? just call? maybe even consider a fold?

Answer 1

Same thought as above, AQ.  (And shame on you for the limp preflop!)  Raise him about $250.  If he comes over the top there's a good chance he's got Aces.  

Of course the underlying question is whether or not he has QQ.  I would say the pot-sized bets, especially the flop bet, indicate that he is just trying to get you out of the pot.  On the turn if he had KK he'd make a smaller bet to induce the call or check you hoping for a check-raise.

Answer 2

1) Based on his bets, I'd say you can only deduce the following:

> Preflop he has a hand, anywhere from a strong A or suited connector all the way up to Premium pair.

> Post-flop bet was meaningless, other than pointing away from a set, because his bet's a little too large.

> Post-turn it looks like he has a piece, because he's really investing a lot on this hand.  I'd put him on something in the AK, KQ range, with just a remote chance at a double draw (J0 suited, 78 suited) or a weak 2 pair, and an even remoter chance at the set or the nut flush draw.

> His final bet looks either very strong or very weak.  If he just had top pair or a weak two pair, he'd check it down.  His earlier bets don't look like a total bluff, so I'd put the most likely range at Ks over Qs, set of Ks, 4s, 5s or 6s, 8-high straight and the missed heart flush (Ax or J0.)

2) I'd just call.  Even though the only fear is KK, QQ and 87suited (and the QQ is fairly unlikely) You already have a nice pot built up, and any raise worth making will either not get called, or expose you to an all-in that your hand just isn't good enough to call.

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One other thought:

If you're basing these cash game hands off TV hands, you're probably talking High Stakes Poker or a show like it.  It's worth noting that those players all know each other very well, so they'll play a hand way outside the norm sometimes, because they've got a specific read.

But here, in the 'example' realm, we have to make assumptions about 'range of hands' and what a certain bet might mean completely in the dark.

If Matusow bets, and Brunson raises, that raise might have FAR more to do with Matusow than it does with Brunson's hole cards.  But in your example, it's me betting, and mysterious Loose Aggressive Opponent raising, and I have to assume he knows almost nothing about me, other than generic playing style, and his bet is all about him.

Just a thought.

Answer 3

I must say, I am curious as to where you are finding 1/2 games with that kind of money at the table.  As for your opponent's range, my first thoughts, based on the play after the flop was either A/Q, A/K or a mid-sized poket pair such as 10s, 9s or 8s. (while you state he is a hyper aggressive player) I don't see him raising with 7/8 after two limpers.  You say he is a good player, and a good player wants a multi-way pot with a drawing hand like 7/8 so that he might get payed off.  I don't see a raise like that with K/K or Q/Q simply because there are two limpers and making it only 9 to call, people are going to call with any kind of hand that might hit a monster flop.(especially with stacks the size that they are approx. 750 times the big blind).  Also people will call with a suited ace, which is the dread and fear of someone with those two hands because you can't play your hand if an ace comes on the flop.

You raise for value, simply because you don't put him on  a hand that can beat you.  Your hand has been disguised well and he is betting like he hit top pair, or top two pair.  For reasons stated above, I simply don't put him on a set of Ks, or a set of Qs (also I doubt he would have bet out with a set of Qs on that flop unless he put you on a straight draw) So my answer depends on your table image too, would you call with a drawing hand pre-flop for a raise, knowing it to be a two way pot and being out of possition? If your image is tight and solid, there was no reason for him to bet the flop like that with top set.  He needs to let you possibly catch up.

Answer 4

1.) I like to narrow it down as much as possible, so I put him on A Q. Heres the assesment.

Preflop i was thinking a high Ace or a mid pocket pair. But then I'd eliminate the mid pair because usually if you don't hit your set, you shut it down. But he keeps firing. Players don't seem to raise with Q J anymore, So I'd put him on to Queen Ace first, and then King Queen second. I think he would've bet higher with King Queen though cause we checked to him 3 times and it would've been top 2 pair for him but still possible. And a very slim chance of pocket Queens or Kings, Queens and he gets top set on flop and checks too. Outside shot at the pocket Kings. The bets would've been much different though. Any which way I beleive we're ahead.

2.) I would raise. I really doubt he picked up the straight. I think the bet pre flop would have been higher with pocket Kings or Queens which would be the only scary ones. So I'd try and make it a raise in between looking like a value bet and a steal. He raised 134, a value bet says raise 175 more. And a steal is about 500. So right in the middle somewhere and raise it to $325 more, $459 total. No chance of a fold at this point because the only hands we're afraid of again are the pocket Kings and Queens. If he rerises are 325 more, then he probably has them. Low odds flopping set vs set too. Any other hand we want him to have.

Thought about this one a little more last nite. Theres an outside shot of Ace King. If we checked the flop, thats a good time to throw a feeler bet out there with a couple of overs. And possibly he hit the King and now has top pair top kicker. So that bet sounds right. Because we keep checking first, those bets sound do able. So to properly answer the first part, His range is AQ, AK, And K Q. Any which way we are ahead.

For Adam, with those size of the stacks, if you raise it to $250, the only call you get is the one you don't want because your probably behind. And looking to set.

I really doubt the 7 8 cuase he would of wasted a chance at getting free cards. For dunthate

And while you do say he is hyper aggresive you also say he is very good and very good players don't waste free cards.

Answer 5

if my calculations are correct, 349 dollars in the pot, and it costs you 134 to call.  that is 2.5 to 1.  You are not folding

1) His range: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, KQ,  Axhearts, 55, 78

2) You played the hand so weakly that i have no idea how likely it is that he has QQ or 78.  Those are really the only hands we fear, but again, we have no info.  So i would probably just call.

No way i fold.  If you raise, and get reraised all in, you probably are beat so i wouldnt reraise

Answer 6

If you could, please include the pot size on various streets (i am very lazy).

Also, include your image.

I assume this is a live game because stacks arent ever this big in online games. Also, its rarely if ever 8 handed in NLHE.

Preflop: When he raises 11, his range is incredibly wide. I say anything from 22-AA, 45s-QJs, Axs, AJo+, KTs+. Why is his range so wide? Because the stacks are sooo deep (implied odds make suited hands go up in value) and he has position. It is also very very important to take note of your own hand range because he is good at putting people on hand ranges. You range is 34s+, 22-88, some weak suited aces.

Flop- Ok, he fires a c-bet. His range is still the same. Your range is narrowed alot when you call this flop. Lets assume you dont float OOP. Your range looks like 34, 56, 78, 55, 77, 79, 89, some middle or bottom pairs.

Turn- He fires again. His range is still incredibly wide. If he is capable of putting you on hands he should betting this turn with all decent hands (Qx+) again for value/protection.

He should also be bluffing this card with his entire range because he can now rep the king which coincidentaly is a scare card for you (or so he thinks). You call. Heres the problem. Your range is now soley 55, 77, 56  once in a  while 78. Why? Well, I cant see you calling with middle or bottom pair anymore. Even though middle pair may still be good, its going to be really really hard to call a three barrell (something you will face alot). I cant see you calling with gutshots anymore because you are getting pretty bad odds AND you are OOP which makes it really hard to extract value. I cant see you calling with 34 when you arent even drawing to the nuts, you are OOP, and you arent getting enough implied odds.

With 78, we are drawing to the nuts, but its still tough to extract value. The thing is, the only way we can play this when we do hit is to c/r river. The thing is, if villian is good thats the only hand he can put us on (maybe sets). Add the chance he may not even fire again with Qx and some bluffs, and its a very marginal call with 78.

On the river, if he is a good player the only hands  he can put us on are 55, 66, sometimes 78. So when he bets, he is betting for value against 55, 66 because he himself has 78 (a hand that is consistent with the betting). If he puts us on the following range there is no way he is bluffing because he cant make us fold sets.

1. Therfore, the only hand he can have is 78.

2. We fold.

The problem is, i find it hard to fold sets against a hyper agressive oppenent. However, i looked through my logic and it seems spot on. First of all, he is a very good player. Therefore he is good at putting people on hands. His range can be incredibly wide preflop, flop, and turn. However, our range is already narrowed by the turn. By the river, our hands are only monsters. If he knows this, he wouldnt be bluffing.

Then again, he may have some higher level thinking. I am not going to explore that.

Sabes plz explain where i went wrong

Edit: Actually, I stand by what i said. You didnt give me your image, so im going to assume you are capable of thinking. The problem with this hand is that we didnt raise preflop which already narrowed our hand range. I also looked through all the answers. Why dont you guys think about YOUR hand looks.

Edit 2: You say call because our hand is underrepped. However, our underrepped hand is the only hand that makes sense (excluding 56 and the rare 78) to our oppenent. So how can you say call? There has to be a better reason.

Edit 3:  @baked noodle- "A very good but HYPERAGRESSIVE player raises it to 11.." A hyperagressive oppenent is capable of firing a c-bet with a draw on the flop right? A HYPERAGRESSIVE oppenent is capable of firing a double barrell ON THE SECOND BEST SCARE CARD right?

"if you raise it to $250, the only call you get is the one you don't want because your probably behind. And looking to set."

You expect to get called by worse hands when you raise to 325-498, but only better hands call when you raise to 250? That doesnt seem logical. I agree that if you are INTENDING to value raise, you should raise more than 250. However, I dont understand why raising a less amount is going to get called a LESS amount, compared to raising a larger amount. I mean, your oppenent has to call more when you raise a larger amount. When he has to call more, logically his hand needs to be better. Still, I think your raise amount is better: your logic seems incredibly weird.

Edit 4: I cant see myself folding either in real life. One thing that doesnt make sense is his bet size on the river. If he had put us on a monster he would bet more because with a monster we would call more often.