Hand of the day VIII?

Question

i can't come up with a hand, so time for a hand that i played(yea!!!)...but you guys get to play in place of my opponent, not me

you are playing in a 6-handed home game, blinds are $.25-.50, and effective stacks are $80...there is a $1 straddle on the hand, the button limps in, and you raise to $4 with Q-Q in the small blind...i call you from the big blind, and the button also calls...the flop comes 9-8-2 rainbow, and knowing that i am an extremely LAG player you check to me, and i bet right out for $6...the button folds, and you just call, setting the trap...the turn is an offsuit 7, and you bet out $20 now to protect your hand...i put you all-in, what is the play?

you have a fairly LAG image also, but your credibility has been damaged some because you have been losing in this game

pot sizes on each street:

before flop: $13

before turn: $25

Answer 1

I wouldn't have played that poorly pre-flop or on the flop...if I have a LAG image and on top of that I've been loosing all night, I probably would have maybe even made it 5 although that is 5x, but I definatly Cbet the Flop, based on I doubt you respect me say you call now instead of the $38 pot it's about $55.

Anyway pot is what about $100, chances are you have me beat, but I'd say 10% chance your bluffing the pot is paying me 2:1, but I think I'm winning 30% of the time, no real reason to call here for a breakeven pot at best here. In my opinion.

Answer 2

Okay, I just called the $6, because I intended to let you bluff one more time before I check raised, but then I panicked when I saw the 789 on the board and fired away (no wonder I have been losing.)

My play really looks like exactly what it was, a panic move.  Obviously, I wouldn't fire away if I had the straight, so my bet looks like I'm AFRAID of the straight.  You pick up on that, and gun me down.

Your all-in looks like you also don't have the straight.  You have position and me betting at you, so why raise with the nuts and no flush draw?

Problem is, your play would be identical with 2 pair, a set, a semi-bluff or a bluff.  You just know I'm weak and want to take this pot down, so I could be in big trouble or solidly ahead.

Pot is up to $115(ish) and costs me $50 to call.  Your range is all over the board, because I've played the hand like a scared little girl and I figure you're playing me and not your hole cards.

My hunch is that you have equal chances for a set, 2 pair, and a pair with the o/e draw.  I'm ignoring the odds for pure bluff and made straight, because I figure they're both remote, so I'll let them cancel each other out.

My winning percentage (very roughly) = 1/3 * 5% + 1/3 * 20% + 1/3 * 75% = about 30-35%.

Grrrreeeeeeeeat.  My percentages and my pot odds are almost a wash.

I fold.  Fact is, I can play a better hand, so I'll wait for a chance to do so.

--------------------------------------...

Dun,

I think you got the analysis completely wrong at the end.

"Chances are, we arent bluffing when we check/call OOP flop, then lead 1/4 our stack on the turn."

Our leading out on the turn was an obvious panic bet.  We are proving to Sabes and the whole table that we have, at best, a high pair.

Sabes comes back over the top because he knows we can't call, no matter what.  Does he have us beat?

Probably.

But there's no WAY he has JT.  All in with the nuts and almost NO chance of getting rivered?

I still put him on top pair + o/e draw or 2 pair (or maybe that set.)

In the end it doesn't matter.  We can't call with QQ, because we should know that he KNOWS we have QQ, or something close to it.  We panicked, we screwed up, and now we fold.

Answer 3

I can tell why we are losing in this game.

Why the **** are we slowplaying?

We must be the fish in the table.

Since we are a dumfuk_, we probaly arent getting bluffed by a good player.

We defintly arent getting c/r bluffed here.

Easy fold.

BTW, in your shoes I think betting 6 dollars into a 12 dollar pot is spew. If you had a real hand, would you be making p***y bets like that? I dont think so. You arent even going to get A2 to fold. Say you pot it instead. Now your oppenent will be scared because there is a high chance you might bet again on the turn in such an inflated pot.

Edit: I should probaly provide a little more analysis.

Flop:

First of all, when we check your range should be very wide when you bet.

Turn: WTF , we bet into you. We are sooo stupid. Why would we check the flop and then bet into you on the turn? Why not just bet the flop and not look suspicious? Why not just c/r flop? Sabes, you are so smart to find a fish like that. Chances are, we arent bluffing when we check/call OOP flop, then lead 1/4 our stack on the turn. NOW WE GET ******* RAISED. Ok... as i said you arent bluffing. First of all, i dont think you are capable of that. Second of all, I dont think you would bluff a fish. Third of all, I dont think you  would bluff us when we show some strength.

EASY FOLD , sorry we arent as dumb as your oppenent :)

YOU OBV HAD JT

"Our leading out on the turn was an obvious panic bet. We are proving to Sabes and the whole table that we have, at best, a high pair."

Edit 2: Tank

When somone bets into you 5/6 pot on the turn after raising preflop and c/c flop you think hes scared? Maybe if he bet 1/4 pot instead of 5/6 pot you could say its a panic bet. I just dont see how the "fish" is panicking when he takes this line and with this bet sizing. I also dont understand why "fish" cant have something better than AA. Plz explain.

"But there's no WAY he has JT. All in with the nuts and almost NO chance of getting rivered?"

You didnt consider the fact that are some scare cards that can kill our action on the river. If sabes thinks "fish" is strong why not shove the nuts in? This is where we disagree. You think fish is weak while I think fish has a decent-monster hand given his line + betsizing.

Answer 4

I would fold.

Too many hands beat us. Exspecialy going up against the big blind.  That flop looks big blind worthy. Even though you called the raise.

I would put you on to a straight or more likely a set. Any which way I think you have us beat. The raise to $4 sounds like an overpair bet. And you can beat an overpair.

But being that you know he has Queens, he called. Or he had a tough lay down in his mind and showed you the Queens.

So I would fold and say "I can't beat a straight." cause thats the best hand available.  Even knowing you have a set (I'm thinking 8's). And possibly show you too. Home games are much more loose.

Idea for ya sabes. After you post a question, put look for hand of the day V or which ever one is still open. I like seeing all the diferent opinions.

SABES, Do you have the results of "Hand of the day V" Did he have the boat? lol

"Hand of day V" SWEEEEEEEET. That was a tough and great laydown.