Hand of the day X?

Question

here is another very interesting hand of the day:

$1-2 cash game, effective stacks of $450...the utg player, who is very good and very aggressive, limps in, and utg+1 limps as well...sensing some weakness with the limps, you raise to $12 with 8-8, and utg now re-raises you $35...utg+1 folds, and considering the size of the raise, having position, and your image of your opponent, you make the call...the flop comes down Q-4-3 with two diamonds, your opponent bets $50, and still unconvinced you make the call...the turn is the 5c and your opponent now fires $125

you are effectively reduced to only two good choices here, either fold or go all-in...which do you choose?

Answer 1

i'd say he's bluffing. i'd go all in. if he had the high pair, he would bet more to take you out of the flush draw. if he had a monster, he would bet less than 50% of the pot to induce a call. he's betting 50% which means, from an aggressive player, he has nothing. my guess would be a pure bluff with Ax, possibly he has a draw and is hiding it if he hits.

Now, calling or how much to bet. If you want to play safe, I would call and see what happens on the river. If a 9-j comes out, then I would think about folding. the most dangerous move from an aggressive player is the check. however, he may have a draw. A7 is particularly dangerous in this situation. I'd go all in, if I decided he was full of it.

But actually, the correct move would have been to go all in or raise after the flop. if he called the raise, he could beat queens or had the flush draw, and you could get out of the hand without spending any more. By just calling, you don't get information about the hand.

Answer 2

I would have tried to set the trap.... not overplay  88.... you could see how others reacted to the early limpers.... Smells like he had a big pair and his wild image may have paid off at this point.. You could have saved a lot of money by not committing to such a mediocre hand

Answer 3

He's very good and very aggressive, which means he has the stones to fire three times at a bluff.

He seems completely unafraid of the board, which means overpair, set ... or a bluff.

Geez.

I'd fold.  Yes, he could be bluffing, but I'd hate to think he's firing away at a bluff and only has a pair of 9s ...........

Answer 4

I would fold.

I believe he has Aces or Kings..

Here's the assesment. I've noticed that very aggresive players bet lower with better hands and higher with weaker hands. Phil Hellmuth does this alot if you watch him on TV. He raises a good size with Ace Rag and then postures and folds to a reraise. And then he bets 1 to 2 times the blind with Pocket K's or Q's type of hands. Trying to set the trap.

So this is were the limp starts out. Although its not the case every time, the reraise pre flop lets us know, it's a hand. And being UTG, this is the best time to limp if you are going too. Because if someone raises you can always go over the top if needed.

And I believe you need to mix it up. They have all sorts of books and strategy guides to tell people how to play a hand. So if you play every hand "by the book", you are giving away your hand too top players. Thats why pros like to sit at tables with pros. Thier text book plays are easy too read. People who don't know what they are doing as much are the ones who mix it up and are tougher too read.  If you raise it 5 to 10 times the size of the blind with Aces and Kings every time, doesn't it scream out "High Pair"?

I'd eliminate Ace King. He'd have nothing and probably wouldn't keep firing with Ace high. I think he'd play a set differently too. I don't think he has the lower pair cause the Queen and our calls would shut the betting down. I'd eliminate the Ace Queen because the size of the reraise pre flop, he'd probably just call with AQ. Although possible, it's an outside shot.

He's not affraid of the Queen. So that leads me to believe it's Aces or Kings. And my gut says Aces. We got 2 outs. So I gotta fold that 1 and wait for a better spot.

I'm interested in seeing the results. That set of tens on hand of day VII was a sick call. LOL. I usually have great reads live. And online too, I've called peoples hand out and been right. With out even seeing there face. Those are nice. But getting it right off a question, that says alot about reading the size of peoples bets. Reading the bet in my mind is every bit as important as reading the person. Playing online is great for this.

Try this for fun. Record a nice poker event on TV. Then put little sticky post it notes on the screen and cover thier hands but leave the bets visable. Now put it on mute so you can't hear the announcers and try and read people and see how you do at the end. Pause it and rewind if needed and see how close you were. I tried it once on a Poker After Dark, on the very first hand I tried it I put T.J. Cloutier on a pocket pair of Queens, he had Jacks. Very gratifying and very fun.

Answer 5

Craigers is right.  I suspect an overpair.  The flop call was pretty weak and loose.  Fold-o-rama.