Hand of the day XII?

Question

i will copy the baseline for hand of the day XI, this time with the button's hand

it's a $1-2 cash game once again, 8-handed with $170 effective stacks...the utg player, who is very good, very creative, and oftentimes tricky, limps in, as does utg+1 and utg+2...now you pick up J-J in the cutoff, and hoping to take this down without a flop make a huge raise to $30, and the button calls right behind...now the utg player moves all-in, utg+1 and utg+2 both fold, and it's back to you...utg has you covered, and you have about $90 left, do you call?

Answer 1

Sounds like you raised a little too much. You trapped yourself into pricing yourself into a hand.

If you had done a moderate raise, you could let this one go easily, but now you're tempted to call with someone still to act behind you.

I'm torn on this, because it's a ring game and I have a tourney mentality. I would call, especially if there was even a hint that he tried this earlier with bad cards.

Answer 2

Yuck!  From this seat, this is a very nasty hand!

With my hugely outsized raise, I've telegraphed my hand as being one of 2 things: an upper-mid pair (88-JJ) or a ballsy bluff to steal the dead money.  (I suppose it could be some bizarre, double-reverse-halfback-pass psychology move with AA but ...... no.)

Any way you slice it, my hand looks semi-strong at best.  If UTG picked up on that, he was in a perfect spot to squeeze me and the button out.

UTG figures I can't call his all-in because he thinks I have a weak hand (based on my bet.)  If I don't call, the button is left hanging.  The button had FIVE players left to act, including 3 limpers, and didn't raise my bet of 30.  Given that his call makes other calls more likely (because of pot odds) he wouldn't have done that if he had a premium hand, he would've reraised to isolate me (or at least me and one other.)

My problem is, UTG's bet is also consistent with AA and KK (or even QQ.)  In fact, his range of hands is all over the board from:

- AA, KK, QQ or AK suited if he's playing it straight up.

- Any other holding down to a 'playable against medium pair' hand like 8 7 suited or Q 10 suited or KQo if he's squeezing.

Ok, enough stalling, how do I play it?

I think it's better than 60-40 that he's squeezing.  So I put my winning percentage at (ballpark):

  30% I'm way behind = 30%*20% = 6%

+ 10% I'm a coin flip = 10%*50% = 5%

+ 40% that I'm ahead significantly (2 unders or A-small) = 40%*60% = 24%

+ 20% I'm way ahead = 20%*80% = 16%

Which gives me a winning percentage of .... (Ugh!) .... 51%.

But I'm getting 2-1 on my money, so it's an easy call.

{Okay, it was anything BUT easy, but I still call.}

--------------------------------------...

EDIT for Dun:

Regarding Hand XI, I think pretty much all your points are wrong.

Well, not wrong, exactly, just not .... right.

- Regarding CO's raise to 30.  You don't have to assume it's trash 90% of the time, you just have to assume it's weak most of the time.  He was first raiser in a pot FILLED with dead money, and he went to FIFTEEN times the BB!  Would AA do that?  KK even?  No.  Not a chance.  If he had bet 15 or even 20, the read on his hand is a little muddied, but 30 is just begging for folds.

- UTG's limp in.  A creative, aggressive player could limp in with almost anything here from 56s to 44 to AA and almost anything in between.  Maybe he's fishing for a small set, maybe he expects the reraise, maybe he's hoping to play his suited connector or 2-gap cheaply.  Truth is, we can't tell much of anything from his limp, because, as a creative player, there are MANY possibilities.

- "Utg feels button is weak" - The Button's hand IS weak.  He didn't reraise with FIVE live players behind him.  Making that play with any premium hand is completely incompetent.  There's NO hand he could have that would NOT reraise the CO raise but WOULD call the UTG all-in (unless he plays horribly, which is a frightening possibility, but real.)

- "UTG feels ... CO has an incredibly wide range" - Not necessarily.  UTG feels (in my analysis anyway) that CO's hand is weak.  CO bet so high that UTG thinks he'll fold to the squeeze play.  It isn't that his range is wide, it's that his range does NOT include hands that are strong enough to call the all-in.

- "Utg's range is very polarized here imo" - Again, I think UTG can make this move with any two cards (any two that were worth the initial limp anyhow.)  IF he's convinced that CO was weak AND he's convinced that D was weak (for the reasons I gave above) then this is the perfect opportunity for a squeeze play.  He's making the play because of his opponents, not his cards.

- "You have invested 2 dollars." - This is the one point that gave me pause when I did my initial analysis.  Any time you can get out of a tough hand (essentially) free, it's tempting.  But ultimately, this is a chance to pick up a monster pot when I think you have a significant advantage, and if you won't take those chances when they present themselves, you won't be a winning player.

Answer 3

I deleted alot of stuff so that I could actually make room to asnwer this question.

This hand is very easy to play. If you actually read what I wrote above (before I deleted it) and below (edit 2 toward you and tank) you would understand my views on utg (a VERY GOOD PLAYER AS YOU SAY) limping utg with suited connectors and Ax.

Therefore, if he doesnt have suited connectors or Axs, he can only have a decent-monster hand. By decent I mean 99-JJ. By monster I mean KK-AA. Would utg limp/reraise with 99-JJ? I have two good reasons why I dont think utg would do this.

1. Limp/reraising makes your hand look way too strong. Therefore, you rarely get worse to call, but always get better to call or raise.

2. You also dont want to inflate the pot too much, but you wanna protect and just raising preflop accomplishes this.

If the best line is to raise preflop with 99-JJ, fold trash utg, then it just leaves the absolulute monsters- QQ-AA.

Is this explanation "cogent" enough?

:P

Edit 2 towards tank.

First of all, I really enjoy arguing. ITs so much fun! Even though Im seriosly busy, I cant resist replying back.

" Regarding CO's raise to 30. You don't have to assume it's trash 90% of the time, you just have to assume it's weak most of the time. He was first raiser in a pot FILLED with dead money, and he went to FIFTEEN times the BB! Would AA do that? KK even? No. Not a chance. If he had bet 15 or even 20, the read on his hand is a little muddied, but 30 is just begging for folds."- Tank

Dunhate235**********

Why wont AA or KK do that? When so many people have limped in, AA fares very badly. If he raises like 4bb and utg decides to just call, everyone else behind him has the odds to call too. How do you know he doesnt want everyone to fold? He only has one pair and his equity isnt that great. If he picks up the dead money, he should be happy. At most, he will only get one caller, and he will also be happy.

Yes, you do have to assume he has trash 90% of the time. At least 80% actually. Why? Because if he doesnt have trash a huge amount of time

1. utg wouldnt be squeezing as often (because CO isnt as weak)

2. you are ahead less often to CO's range (if he doesnt have trash that often, he might not be as behind us as we thought) and utg's range (utg'ss queezing range is more tight because CO's range is more tight). Its kinda of like a chain reaction.

Im not saying I feel CO's range is 80% trash. In fact I think its around 50% trash, 50% decent. However, for your QQ to call utg's allin YOU NEED CO'S RANGE TO BE AT LEAST 80% TRASH.

Tank's post:::::

UTG's limp in. A creative, aggressive player could limp in with almost anything here from 56s to 44 to AA and almost anything in between. Maybe he's fishing for a small set, maybe he expects the reraise, maybe he's hoping to play his suited connector or 2-gap cheaply. Truth is, we can't tell much of anything from his limp, because, as a creative player, there are MANY possibilities.

Dunhate235's reply****************

The problem is, good players dont limp utg with anything if they are really that good. I have listed my reasons above and sabes has given some replies. I will attempt to refute all of his replies and reasonings. READ THIS SABES!! If you dont agree, feel free to join in tank. This is what I wrote at first:

Dunhates quote- "But I dont think it happens much (limping utg when its not deep stacked just seems horrible especially since theres a high chance someone is going to raise behind you. If they do, its going to suck because you are OOP and you dont have control of the pot)."

Sabes reply:

"can't necessarily try to think in place of the player, but the way i see it he thinks he can get to a flop cheaply by limping, he thinks there's a better chance of getting multi-way action if he hits his hand, and he knows by limping that he can't expose himself to being re-raised, obviously he can be raised but the amounts compared to his stack would be more manageable, since we are playing shorter here than usual"

My arguement to TANK AND SABES REPLIES RIGHT HERE:

Yes, he can limp for cheap. There also is a higher chance of multiway action. Most of the time you will flop nothing and lose your two dollars. Once in a while, you will flop a decent draw (oesd, flush draw). When this happens, you will lose even more money. Lets give your options out.

1. you bet into like 3 -8 people. This is obviosly horrible.

2. You c/c. When you do this, your hand is instantly known as either a weak hand (tpwk or draw). The worst hand reader in the world can put you on these hands because you would bet out with a real hand to protect. Therefore, if your hand is transparent you have no implied odds.

Your second argument, SABES, is that you wont get reraised. The worst thing is that you will get raised. I have several points to refute this.

1. You raise utg and get 3-bet (this will happen very rarely at a 1/2 LIVE GAME). You can now fold.

2. You raise utg and everyone folds except for one person (the most common scenario). You now can take down the pot a majority of the time whne you c-bet. This negates positional disadvantage.

3. Lets say we follow your line instead. We limp, someone behind us raises to 5xbb (happens at least 3/4 the time AT LEAST BASED ON YOUR GIVEN GAME DYNAMICS FROM THE PREVIOS QUIZ.. let me give you the quote: "knowing that there are several aggressive players behind you" You wouldnt be limping QQ if there wasnt a very high chance of someone behind you raising. In the same way, utg shoudlnt be limping preflop when there is a high chance someone behind him is gunna raise).. We can either

a. call. We lose the same amount as rasing preflop ourselves, but now we are OOP and dont have control of the hand.

b. We fold. We lost one bb so we may as well have folded preflop.

The only thing that makes sense is your stack to pot ratio size. That makes sense. In the end, good players do NOT LIMP PREFLOP UTG. There are some exceptions (a complete fish behind you, or a very passive table where there arent mucch passive raises. None of these circumstances were given out so we have to assume they arent true)

Basically, a very good player does not limp preflop utg with suited connectors.

You say hes creative and tricky. A good player isnt being tricky when he limps preflop with suited connectors or Axs. Hes being very stupid and people automatically put other people on suited connecters when they limp pf. He is being transparent.

AGAIN PLZ FEEL FREE TO REFUTE THESE POINTS.

Tanks argument:

- "Utg feels button is weak" - The Button's hand IS weak. He didn't reraise with FIVE live players behind him. Making that play with any premium hand is completely incompetent. There's NO hand he could have that would NOT reraise the CO raise but WOULD call the UTG all-in (unless he plays horribly, which is a frightening possibility, but real.)

dunhate235's argument*****

I have explained this ALREADY in the previos quiz on why I think buttons range is pretty decent-monsterish. Think of it in button's shoe (lets assume HE HAS AA to prove my point that he can have anything decent-monster). CO's image is agressive preflop and he has somewhat wide of a range. Button could either

a. 3-bet and fold like 75% of CO's range.

b. Call his monster raise. On the flop, he can go allin after CO c-bets. When CO c-bets, he will feel more commited to the pot. Button can also pick off one more bet than he would have if he had just reraised preflop.

This is a perfectly logical line isnt it?

Y/A, wont let me write much more. I will reply to your last 3 points in the next hand of the day.

Answer 4

Well, you found out what information you needed to find out.  I am old school, so my answer is going to be an old school answer.  I have always worried about utg limpers.  The reason being is that there are few hands that play well in early possition, period.  While, on the rare occasion, I might limp with a suited connector utg, it would only be at a passive table.  You state there are numerous tag players at the table, so about the only hand I would limp with would be A/A or K/K. (and that would be only if there was a good chance that I was going to be raised). With that being said, the way I would play in that possition influences what I might think someone else could be doing in that possition, if in fact he is a good player, as you said, and creative, once again as you discribed him, there might be a slight chance he is on a steal, especially if his image of you is tag.  However, there is a good chance that you are dominated.  I noticed someone said there were pot odds to call, I beg to differ, you are  getting less than 3 to one for you money, and in your more than likely senerio drawing to 2 outs (not counting backdoor flush or straight possibilites, but they are so low, I wouldn't use them to justify a call).  It just isn't worth the 90 extra dollars to call with johnnys.  There are three hands that dominate you, and there are three combinations of hands that put you in a coin toss (A/K, A/Q and K/Q) , while I might put an A/K in his range, do I still want to risk my 90 on a coin toss?  The only way I could call is if I felt confident that he didn't have A/A or K/K which quiet frankly is what I put him on until I have reason to think differently.  That is a play that good players make in cash games, and I truely don't put to much faith in J/J in this situation.  I have folded Q/Q in similar situations, and everytime I did so and found out what I folded against, I was happy.  I seldom if ever look for justification to myself to play J/J in this senerio, I assume I am behind, unless I have a good tell on the opposition, with out the tell, I am going to lay it down. What I mean by that I see folks all the time with J/J, 10/10 and 9/9 try to justify to themselves why they should call in a situation like this, literally convince themselves to make an otherwise donk call.  I don't do that anymore, especially in a cash game.  I am not going to risk 90 to protect 30 and that is about the only justification, ie, you aren't going to be pushed around and you are going to be sheriff.  That ain't what playing cash poker is about.  It is about winning in the long term, and risking 90 to protect 30 when in more cases than not you are drawing to 2 realistic outs, ain't a good long term stratagy, period.  And 1sb+2bb+2utg1+2utg2+30 initial raise+30button+90 the ammount I have to call+90 if call is pot of 247, I am not getting 3 to 1 and that is not sufficiant odds to call drawing to 2 realistic outs (you have to assume you are behind, if not, why bother with pot odds in this situation, and I need dern near 8 to 1 for my money to justify drawing to a set.  Heck, even if the button calls, I am not getting nowhere near the odds to justify my call and if I was wrong about utg's holdings, the chances of my J/J holding up just went down too, with 3 in the pot.  There simply is no way to justify, mathimatically the call with any holding I reasonably put utg on.  

With all the above being said, absent a dang good read on utg that tells me he doesn't have me dominated, it is an easy laydown.  Depending on button, his way of thinking (I see folks day in and day out say..."hmmm, I am getting more than 3 to 1 for my money, it's a call" with d**n near any 2 cards) The button I put more than likely on a race situation, maybe a smaller pair, but if my image is tag, I would say race, and they seem to justify more donk calls because they have more outs in their minds.

EDIT after reading others, 1, you aren't priced in, protecting 30 with 90 isn't being priced in in a cash game.  2, In a live ring game for 1/2, that is a common raise (30) for a/a or k/k too in most every card room I play in, it doesn't scream j/j to me or a smaller pair at least in the Mississippi card rooms and Florida card rooms amongst the good cash players especially with 2 limpers ahead of you, anything less you are just building the pot in a 1/2 game. With any paint pair or ace pair you only want one other person in the pot with you and a 15 raise in the cash games I play in with 2 limpers does nothing but build the pot. Please note, my answers are based on being in a live card room game, not online, I promise you there is a world of difference between to two.