Hand of the day XIX: every hand revealed?

Question

it is now much later in the tournament, and we are playing as gus this time...we are one of the chip leaders with 1.4 million and there are about 30 players left...it is 6-handed at our table with 10k-20k blinds and a 3k ante, and we pick up A-K of clubs utg and raise it up to 66k...the big blind, who has been playing pretty tight, makes a huge all-in over-raise for 875k total...do you jeopardize your chip position to gamble, or do you wait for a better spot?

Answer 1

Your decision has nothing at all to do with whatever table image you have.

Why would it?  You are not trying to impress anybody, you are making a decision about whether to trade places with somebody in the ranking, if you lose.

Why would you want to double this guy up - possibly - just because of whatever your image is/was?

The guy has gone all in.......obviously he has something, he is not going to be bluffing at this stage with NO cards whatsoever...after you have raised.

There was no need for him to go all in for short-stack purposes.  He has enough chips to be cautious.

The time to bluff is when you think others have weak or mediocre hands.

For you to raise Under The Gun indicates firepower.

And for him to re-raise indicates firepower.

So, you are already the Underdog to any pair, by roughly a 56% to 44% ratio.

You are going to lose this hand more often than you will win, if he has a pair - even a pair of 4s.

Why would you take this chance?  What is in it for you?

Yes, you could knock the guy out....but is it worth it to give up over half of your chiptstack playing a longshot?

Let some more people plunge all in to their deaths as they run out of chips.

Bide your time. Lay down Big Slick....it gets beaten too often to trust it in this situation.

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Answer 2

That's a fold. I wouldn't want to throw off a third of my stack on an un made drawing hand this late. If he's a tight player than he probably has a made hand or at the very least Ace King as well. Either way I think we are behind or tied. So can't call hoping for the best case to be a split. Even more so of a fold with the Ace King because thats been my doom hand lately. Been leaving people crushed and playing it well, just coming up on the losing end.

Answer 3

Pokercid:  Odds are better than 56-44, because we're suited.  And the reason our table image matters is pretty clear (even if it was a dumb question, given that we're Gus Hansen.)  If we're tight players, the all-in will be assuming we have a strong hand, and he reraised anyway.  But if we're perceived as loose (and we are the epitome of thunder-loose) then it could very easily be that he thinks our hand is not enough to call an all-in.

But what to do........

Folding is an easy out, and could even be the right play.  After all, we're near the top and any play that leaves us there is good, right?

But what to do........

what does our opp have?

Here's how I see it:

- AA or KK                                               - 0%

- QQ - 22  (all roughly the same to us)  - 65%

- AK                                                          - 15%

- Ax (less than K )                                    -  15%

- less than that                                          -  5%

His bet's insane for the top hands, solid for the underpairs or an AK, and it's not a bad move to push with a defendable 'lesser hand' given that we're Gus Hansen, and we rely on outplaying guys after the flop (unless this player thinks he's better than Gus at post-flop play, and that doesn't match up with a tight image.)

So, given these guesses, what's our winning percentage?

32%+8%+12%+4% = 56%

We're getting just better than 1.1-1 and we're favored to win.  Also, if we want to win this tourney, we need to go get some chips, and if 1.4M is NEAR the chip lead, 2.3M ought to be right on top.

I say call.  It's a gamble, but if you're not going to gamble on a suited AK in a 6-man table, what hand are you waiting for?

--------------------------------------...

Edit:  You're right Hal, even Gus can develop tight image in the short term, so it's not fair to just 'assume' he's his mega-loose self.

Still, he IS Gus Hansen, and I'm not sure, no matter how many beats he's run into lately, that all-in with AA or KK would feel like the most profitable play.  After all, Gus will 3xBB raise with a wide range of hands, even if he's tightened up, but he won't call $800,000 with a huge range.

If BB's got a monster hand, he's making a very bad play (or a very tricky, double-negative, reverse-psychology play,) and since he made the top 30 at the Aussie, I have to assume he doesn't make very bad plays.

Regardless of recent table action, I still say you have to call.

Answer 4

tough one with limited information. if my table image is loose, I'd call, if it's tight, i'd fold.

[edit] I guess i need to explain my answer:

If my table image is loose, an all-in raise by the BB usually indicates he thinks we're stealing (again) and he is defending his blind with a re-steal. If he really had strength, like a pair of kings, he would not have raised all in, but maybe re-raised by 2X or 3X as he wants a call and a big raise would scare away a loose player. Basically, an all-in move says he wants us out, not in. Since the hand is good, I would call. The is almost the de-facto reason for playing aggressive in the first place: when you do get a hand, you get paid well for it.

If my table image is tight, then a 3X BB raise UTG should indicate a serious hand, and only one of the top hands would even try tangling with it. An all in re-raise in this situation would indicate to me AA or KK. I might put someone loose on as low as maybe aq or aj but no lower. If I had been playing tight, probably less than 1 hand per button turn, he might think he can trick us into calling an all-in since we're desperate for cards. In this case, an all-in re-raise indicates he wants us in, not out. I would give him credit for KK or AA and fold.

While it may be easy to assume that Hansen always plays aggressively, it is quite possible that he took a couple of bad beats and tightened up recently, say in the past 40 or 60 hands.