Hand of the day XVII?

Question

another tournament situation, some time after the money bubble, right in the middle of the tourney...blinds are 3k-6k with a 1k ante, and a tight player in first position makes it 21k to go...you have about 100k as does the raiser, and you look down at A-K of diamonds, but considering your opponent's utg raise you play cautious and just call...another tight player with the same stack as you and your opponent calls, and then a very good lag player who is one of the leaders with about 500k moves everyone all-in from the big blind...the first player calls all-in, and now it is up to you...what is the play?

Answer 1

- If either the BB or UTG (or the other opp who hasn't acted yet) has AA or KK, you're almost certainly doomed.

- If both, or all 3, of them have under pair (or a wild hair and a deathwish) you'd still need an A, K or huge runners to win, but your chances to hit are more than justified by the pot odds.

- If it's a mix, a pair of Qs or Js, an A-face, maybe even another AK .... basically, the most likely scenario .... then you can still win, but your odds would be sharply curtailed, and you could end up playing for a split ... or less.

Overall, I think it's a fairly easy fold.  Although there are a few scenarios that give you a solid chance to win for your 3-1 pot odds, there are far more that don't justify the call.

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BTW, I've noticed that on those occasions where I earn a BA, my decision is usually the wrong one.

So I hope the player put his last $80K on the line and turned his Royal, I could use the 10 points.

:D

Answer 2

I would fold.

Far to many people in the hand to go in with AK suited. Theres still 3 other people to act. They all called the initial raise so they all have something. We do have a top drawing hand, but theres a good chance the other players are holding some of the cards we need. Even if they fold, that doesn't mean they couldn't of folded some of our cards. If they happen to have pocket Jacks or Queens with a diamond in there, that's alot of what we're looking for.

Even if having a nice made hand like pocket Kings would be tough with the amount of people in there. Although you'd have to call with Kings and a lower stack, it would still be tough in my opinion. Or I think even just 3 people in the pot would be a tough call.

I'd much rather try and go against one person in a better position. I know theres a chance we could triple up +, but we could also be dominated and knocked out just as easily.

Worst case scenario if we call is we are dominated. And I think best case scenario is someone has the same hand as us, in which case you can't call hoping for a split. I don't believe there's any possible way we would be ahead.

Answer 3

in a cash game its an instacall, simply because the pot odds are just too juicy to resist.

at this stage in a tournament though, with a tight player raising in early position, and a person with this same information (also tight!) calls, followed by a massive all in, assuming these guys aren't total donks you HAVE to be up against at least one pair of aces , and most likely a QQ or KK as well.  I think you have to fold in this spot despite the crazy pot odds, and just sit back and enjoy the fireworks.

Of course you know as soon as you fold they will indeed turn over AA, KK, and QQ, and the board will come all diamonds, and you will just tilt off the rest of your money anyways, but at least you made a terrific fold :)

Answer 4

this is a tough decision to make without additional information about past hands. I would need to know:

1. Is 21k the usual raise that was taking down the blinds, or is it unusual overall?

2. How tight was the UTG player? What hands has he shown in the past?

edit: Ok, without seeing his previous hands, I would have to fold. Someone who hasn't been playing many hands will usually underbet hands in early position, e.g. calling with AQ, 2X BB with a medium pair, etc. So, he probably has at least JJ or better. The BB is maybe 30% bluffing with AJ or worse, and 30% on a medium pair, probably trying to defend his blind by scaring people with his stack. The player behind you probably in the same position if they call, worse if they fold. Let's see how AK stands up to this:

AK s: 37.6%

QQ: 53.5%

AJ: 8.9%

AK s: 38.5%

QQ: 42.9%

99: 18.6%

This is assuming you aren't dominated by AA.

Imho, I think a 1:3 chance of winning is too low, even though the pot odds are going to be at least (depending on the 4th player) 4:1. As a general rule, you want to have at least a 55% advantage if you are going to risk your tournament on an all-in preflop and you aren't short stacked. Also, the next tier of payouts could be a factor as well.

However, the argument for calling is that you will be essentially crippled with an M of under 4 if you fold, and you are probably not going to get as good a hand as AK before the next run of blinds. If you are in a run of good hands, it might be better to fold here and hope for another good hand later, but if not, calling is almost a necessity, but at least you're going out with a pretty good hand. Also, there is a good possibility that all of you have some combination of AK, AQ, AJ, or even the same hands, e.g. AK, AQ, AQ. You would be a 70% favorite if it was AK vs AQ/AQ. But again, without seeing his hands, you would have to fold it.