Hand of the day XX: every hand revealed?

Question

this time, we are playing as gus' opponent, who happens to be another player you guys may have heard of, patrik antonius...blinds are 12k-24k with a 4k ante playing a 6-handed table, we are the hand with about 1.75 million and gus with 1.95 million...it is folded to us in the small blind and we decide to mix things up and limp with A-8 of hearts...gus raises it another 72k, and we make the call...the flop comes A-J-9 with two hearts, giving us top pair and the nut flush draw...we check, gus bets 110k, and we decide to slowplay our hand and just call...the turn is the Qs, we check, and gus now fires out 500k...what's the play?

Answer 1

Wow, this ones tough.

My first thought was all in. But the size of Gus' bet looks like thats exactly what he wants us to do. But I think we're hoping for the flush only here. I don't think that an 8 for 2 pair, the 10 for the straight, or another Ace for a set is going to help us enough to feel confident we're ahead. I think we are just looking for the flush.

So I think I would just call 1 more and hope for the flush. If we miss we still have over a million in chips. If we hit we're probably looking at being chip leader (or very nice stacked). The all in play is possible, but the main reason I don't like it is if we get called I think we're behind.

I don't see any way possible of folding. It's just a call or all in, in my oppinion.

Answer 2

Fold, you have top pair with a bad kicker and a nut flush draw. You are 17% to hit the flush on the river, Gus has no fold equity hes going no where and (these days) hes not putting his money in bad. Pick another spot and stop limping with ace rag.

Answer 3

A call at this point is probably the worst move.  You're already beat.  You've shown nothing but weakness so far and if I'm Gus, I put you on a chase or As after all the weak calls.  If Gus has As beat, this is an easy bet for him.  In this situation, it is time to fold because Gus clearly has a good hand and probably better than yours.  Even if bluffing, I can think of at least 21 hands that have you beat after the turn, with 13 very possible given his preflop raise and continued betting.  Get out while you can and next time, raise earlier in the hand to get a better idea of what Gus has.  

FYI, you didn't slow play after the turn.  You telegraphed your very average hand.  Right now the nuts are K-10, but slow playing even the best hand is questionable as it can be busted by a flush.

Answer 4

maybe you should hide who the players are? assuming this is from gus's book, and he won the tourney, he's pretty much always going to win these examples, right?

Answer 5

Fold. Chances are you are already behind. This is based on the fact that he raised before the flop, meaning he probably has a decent hand like AK, AQ, or a high pocket pair. Only the flush would give you a winning hand. The odds of making your flush are 46/9 or about 5/1 against. The pot odds are only 888/500 or  a little less than 2/1. In the long run, to call or raise is a losing play.

Answer 6

This hand shows the real downside to a slowplay with a hand this weak.  Not only do you not know where you stand, but you may have missed your chance to take the pot down and you're out of position with no real information for the rest of the hand.

I don't see how you can fold this.  You've got 9 outs for certain, plus 3 outs (the straight) that are very likely (60-70% - losing to KK or AK,) plus 5 outs (As and 8s) with real potential.  Plus you may be ahead already, since Gus has position on you and you haven't showed any balls in this hand.

If it's me, I call the 500K, and hope for the heart or 10, and fear A or 8.   I'll check the river no matter what, and finish my ill-advised slowplay.  I'll call his all-in (if he makes it) if I hit the flush or straight, and fold if I miss completely.  (Please don't ask what I'll do if the A or 8 hits.)

I understand the traditional pot odds don't justify a call, but your potential of positioning yourself for a tourney win here is huge.  if you're playing for a top 10 spot, you can fold, but if you're playing to win, this is a pot worth playing for.