Hand of the day XXI: every hand revealed?

Question

we are now down to three-handed play, and in this hand we will take gus' seat...blinds are 30k-60k with a 5k ante, and jimmy fricke, a 19 year old online player who has been playing very loose and extremely hyperaggressive throughout the tournament, opens for 175k on the button...in the bb, we look at K-Q and decide to send a message right here and now and re-raise to 675k...jimmy calls and the flop comes down A-10-6 rainbow...you decide to lead out for 800k, and jimmy makes the minimum raise to 1.6M...after your flop bet, you have 3.4 million left, what's the play?

Answer 1

Tough one. Without seeing other situations where he's made this raise, there's not much to go on. generally, from a hyperaggressive player, a small raise could mean either they have it or they don't.  

But, from this situation, I think the most likely scenarios are either they also are on the straight draw with KQ, KJ, or something similar, or Ax.

However, if the min raise is common for this player even if they have nothing, I would go with the all-in play and force a fold.

Answer 2

You have no hand and a very outside shot of making a winner.  With the pre flop call, he likely has high cards or a middle pair.  Either way, I'd assume he has you beat at this point.  Calling his bet here is pretty much giving your money away as you only have about 8% chance of getting you J.  Your pot odds are terrible.  Calling is not an option here.  The only card that improves your position is J.  If a 10 or A hits, you could be starting at a full house.  If a K or Q hits, you have a pair, but it is beaten by a AA.  There's just too many ways to lose this hand.  Personally, I would fold at this point as I have plenty of chips to keep playing aggressive.  However, I could see a point to really pushing right now with a big bluff.  The minimum raise suggests that he's made something, but doesn't look like huge to me given his tendency to aggressiveness.  A big raise here might push him out of the pot.  But I'd only do this based on how the game is playing.  A minimum raise often shows a bit of weakness, especially in a normally aggressive player.  But if Jimmy has been switching play even a little bit, I'd be concerned that this is a trap.  Like I say, I'd lay it down now, but feeling like I would have had a good chance at taking the pot with a very aggressive re-raise.

Answer 3

Jimmy has to know theres at least a 10% chance you are playing back especially when the stacks are getting so small compared to the blinds. When he min-raises you cant do anything, but fold. You arent getting the proper odds to call, and he is getting a decent price if you raise. I dont think you can even fold 6x, given your image (super aggressive) and your oppenents (1. loose, 2. hyper manaic who might feel hes getting played back at).\

Ps: would really appreciate it if u could tell us the pot size on the flop after he raises to 1.6 mil. Feel so lazy.... Even better, if you could tell us our pot odds. I feel we have about 7 outs (some of our pair outs , but not all, and 4 gutshot) that are clean.

Edit: you need 22% equity to CALL flop. You havw 15 % (7 outs) equity so its not a viable option. Im not sure how to calculate your equity if you raise. I guess you just add your equity for two cards (28%) + your fold equity (10%). So say we have 38% equity. What do we compare this to?

Answer 4

Fold and play some more.

Answer 5

I gotta let this one go. If it's tough for me to hit a 9 to 15 + outer than I really don't like looking for a 4 outer. If a King or Queeen falls on the turn I still wouldn't feel confident enough to push it. I think we are just looking for the Jack.

First instict was to call and try for the nut straight, but I don't like throwing that much out there on a 4 outer. We have enough left that a fold doesn't hurt too bad.