Hand of the day XXVIII: how much to bet?

Question

this time, i am asking you how much you guys would bet in this situation:

it's early in a tournament, blinds are 200-400, and effective stacks are 40k...you raise from middle position with J-10 offsuit to 1000, and a tough, aggressive player on the button makes the call...the flop comes down K-Q-4 rainbow, you check, your opponent bets out 1500, and you call...the turn is an offsuit 5, and you both check...the river is a 9 giving you the nuts...what do you think is the best bet here?

Answer 1

This is a tough one. Because I like the in between bet. The one that doesn't look too high like a steal and it doesn't look too low like a value bet. The pot is 5600 right now. I think a pot size bet or little higher says value bet and about 15k ish says a steal. So I'd bet right in between the two and bet about 8250. Just to keep them guessing and try to figure out what the h***s going on. It might be low enough that they call just to see our hand if they have a decent hand. And it might be high enough for them to raise if they think we're trying to steal, since we both checked the turn.

I don't like the value pot size bet. A good player will notice this and fold. We want to get paid. That's why I don't like a real high steal ish type bet either. If they don't have a lot or even something decent they will fold to the high bet.

I think the in between bet not only keeps them guessing, but it seems to be our best bet to get action.

Since we checked the flop, he bet to see if we had anything at all with his position, possibly trying to represent a King or Queen. Then we called and he failed to raise the turn after our check. So I don't think he has a whole lot. Pair of Queens type of hand.

Answer 2

To me, the checks and calls post flop all say that you are sitting on a draw.  I would have floated a small bet after the turn just to try to get him off thinking you have a draw in case you hit it.  Now, you have to get him thinking that you were really holding middle pair and hope that he either has Ks or tries to bluff you off middle pair.  

From your opponents perspective, here's how I play.

1) If you check, I'm probably going to check unless I made two pair.  J10 is often played and the betting to this point makes me think you hit your straight.  Worst case is I go in with a small bet to see what you think you have.  A strong reraise would confirm that you hit your straight and I'm out.

2) A large raise (pot or bigger) would spook me.  I know there is some hindsight here since we know you hit your straight, but like I said, betting is pretty textbook draw.  I might call, though, which really isn't a bad result for you.  I'd like to think not, but knowing what you have makes it much easier to say I wouldn't.  

3) A small raise is where I get questionable.  With Ks, I might put you on middle pair and put forth a pretty big raise.  But I'm an idiot for not betting after the useless turn.  More likely, I've got squat and tried to steal the pot earlier.  A low bet means you might have squat as well, so I might be tempted to front the K one more time to move you out.

Answer 3

this one depends on my table image. If i've been trapping recently but showing good cards, the most I could bet is 1X the BB. the check on the turn indicates a level of respect, and it's likely he has nothing.

if i've been playing passively (folding in the face of any resistance,) I would check here, and check raise when he puts out a bet.

however, if i've been doing a mix of both (folding and showing good cards,) i'd put out a bet that looks like a steal, about 1/3 to 1/4 of the pot.

if i've been playing loose, and showing bad cards i'd go all in. it's interesting how often this works: overbetting often makes people think you are bluffing.

so, overall, on average, I think the check-raise serves a dual purpose in this situation:

1. Maximizes what you can win if they have nothing

2. Shows the nuts if there's a check-check and intimidates other players (although in this case, I would prefer to hide the fact that I raised preflop with j10 os.)

Answer 4

Fold JTo in middle position with tough players behind you. I dont understand why you didnt bet the flop. On the turn, you get the free card alot because people think you are using pot control.

On the river I wouldnt bet. Im going for the c/r. A tough oppenent understands the importance of pot control and there is a chance they will check the turn with KJ and worse because the board is somewhat dry. Another thing to consider is the fact that if we bet here there are no hands we can rep except a monster. We wouldnt check top pair on the flop. We wouldnt bet middle pair into a player on the river when there is no value. We wouldnt bluff a busted draw because there is none (maybe some wacky gutshot but we would have that bet that most of the time on the flop).

THE BOTTOM LINE: THERE IS NOTHING BAD WE CAN REP ON THE RIVER IF WE BET INTO THE VILLIAN.

However, there is a strong chance villian is using pot control and will bet river. Then, we can c/r.

A c/r of 2.5x the bet is good. If he bets like 1/2 the pot on the river 3x the bet is good.

Edit: Lets talk about the previous hand first. The problem with the defensive bet is that there is a chance you will get raised by air.

In this hand, the small bet might get raised, but its kind of suspicious too and will only get called by KJ type hands. KJ has no reason to value raise but it has a reason to value bet if you check. Another reason is that a small bet on your part wont be raised as much because they want to give you good pot odds. On the other hand, when they value bet (the bet will usually be 1/2-pot sized) you can make a much bigger raise in relationship to the pot size.

Answer 5

Wow, these are getting tougher. I would bet 40% of the pot its slightly higher than a value bet and your opponent might think you are represeting the straight and be forced to call with trips or top 2.

or I over bet the pot to make it look as if I dont want a caller....

hmmmm.

Value bet, you are more likely to get paid and might induce a reraise. Thats my answer.