Hard Spun?

Question

Do you think Hard Spun might have a chance at the Derby this year. As in a win? I actually think he has what it takes, I mean he's won all but one race! I think he has what it takes, do you?

--melissa--

Answer 1

He has to run in it first.  His trainer Larry Jones is leaning towards running in the Lexington and Preakness.  One reason why is that, in his loss, he had difficulty with the Oaklawn racetrack, which is very similar in composition to Churchill Downs.

Answer 2

Yes, I think he has what it takes to win it!! but after a few races  I hadn't heard that much from him until he ran in the Lane's End and won!!!

Answer 3

Hard Spun returned to form in his last race, and I believe if he runs back to that he'll be very hard to beat.  

He's got the pedigree to win the Derby:  he's by Danzig, who has sired  more than 130 stakes winners, and is a sire of sires, starting with Danehill, the Coolmore stallion who has sired so many champions and stakes winners, out of a mare by Turkoman who is out of a half-sister to Little Current, who was unlucky to lose the 1974 Kentucky Derby after passing 17 horses in the stretch and who went on to win the Preakness and Belmont.  He has both brilliance and stamina in his family.

His connections report he really didn't like the track the day he lost the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.  That's not so good, champions shouldn't be pernickity about the track they run over, but the horse can't talk and maybe there were other factors.

I think that unless there is something actually physically wrong with him that compromises his training program, he'll go into the Derby.  I think if he's physically right, his connections have to take a chance.  You don't get many real shots at the Derby, and if you've got a horse that has a legitimate chance I think you have to think long and hard before deciding NOT to take it.

As for the track at Churchill Downs, the problem is that the track surface they have for normal racing days is groomed differently than for Derby Day, or at least that's the perceived truth.  I don't know.  

Today is a big day of preps, we've got the Santa Anita Derby (a somewhat weak field, though) and the Illinois Derby, with Cobalt Blue, the Wood Memorial with Nobiz Like Showbiz and Any Given Saturday.  We'll have to see how things pan out in these preps.  I like Cobalt Blue a lot, but he has a lot yet to prove about himself.  He could be getting good just at the right time, though.

The horses in the SA Derby are mostly a bunch of question marks, but the SA Derby is a prep race that has produced a lot of horses that figure big in the finish of the Derby in recent years.  And a horse doesn't have to win the SA Derby to be a factor in Louisville;  a strong finish in the first four can send a signal.  So we have to see if one or more of the horses in this field stamps himself as a strong contender.

This far in advance of the Derby, there's still a lot of shaking down going on.  Gotta wait and see, but I like Hard Spun and would like to see him take his shot at the roses.