Has the Imbrie & Imbrie theory of 1980 been disproven?

Question

I see it listed all the time by both sides.Is it a double sided coin?

Answer 1

The 1980 study by Imbrie and Imbrie determined that "Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years."  More recent work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years.

The key words here are "Ignoring anthropogenic sources."  In other words, we can claim that we're in a cooling trend, if you ignore mankind's influence, and ignore the current measured warming.  A common misleading version drops the first half of the quote as if to say only that we're in a cooling trend, as if that had been measured.  

Cooling is what a natural solar cycle theory would predict, which is exactly why the current observed warming needs an alternate scientific explanation.  Here's some of the latest science I've seen on the topic:

http://journals.royalsociety.org/content...

"There are many interesting palaeoclimate studies that suggest that solar variability had an influence on pre-industrial climate. There are also some detection–attribution studies using global climate models that suggest there was a detectable influence of solar variability in the first half of the twentieth century and that the solar radiative forcing variations were amplified by some mechanism that is, as yet, unknown. However, these findings are not relevant to any debates about modern climate change. Our results show that the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified."

http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/...

"blaming the sun for recent global warming is no science-backed position anymore – it is deliberate disinformation. "

Quirin Schiermeier

German Correspondent

Nature

Answer 2

No. The Imbrie study regarding the Milankovitch Cycles simply states that we're in the middle of a long-term cooling trend. In other words, the current warming is not due to natural cycles.

An often-cited 1980 study by Imbrie and Imbrie determined that, "Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years."[8]

More recent work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years.[9]

Answer 3

Good Gosh... look at the answers you've been given.Yes the alarmist play it from both angles....yes...no...maybe.Who wouldn't be confused?