How India can still qualify for Twenty20 semi final
India was one of the favorite to win the T20 world cup and looked very impressive in the first stage of the tournament. They outclassed South Africa and walked all over Afghanistan. Everything went their way, bowling was inline and batting was top class. India was the team to beat but it all changed in the super 8 stage.
India’s first super 8 stage match against Australia was dubbed as the clash of the Titans. At the end it was anything but a clash, Australia out performed India in all departments. India’s next match against West Indies suppose to be an easy win but Chris Gayle had something else in mind. Chris blasted 97 runs to put West Indies in a clear control. In response, India’s top order flattered and middle order followed. With two losses out of three and with the lowest net run rate of -1.575, India has very limited choices.
There are only two games left and both must go in favor of India to have any hope of moving on to the semi finals. India is facing Sri lanka who have two points and net run-rate of -0.600 in a must win game. If India loses this game, they are out of the world cup and will not make the semi final in two years running. On the other hand if Sri Lanka loses, they still have a good chance of making it to the next stage; they are currently in second place, thanks to a run rate that is superior to that of West Indies. Due to the net run-rate Sri Lanka can still make the semi final even if they lose providing the loss is less than 20 runs and Australia defeats West Indies. If Sri Lanka wins against India, they go through to the next stage along with Australia unless Chris comes to the party again.
To keep India’s hopes alive, they must beat Sri Lanka and Australia must also beat West Indies. If West Indies win against Australia by 22 runs and Sri Lanka won against India by 2 runs; both India and Sri Lanka will go packing, while Australia and West Indies will move on to the semi final.
Here is the summary for India’s chances of moving on to the semi finals:
India has not won any matches so they are with 0 points and net run-rate -1.575
For India to make semi final; they have to defeat Sri Lanka by by at least 20 runs, and then cheer for Australia to beat West Indies. Currently India has conceded 63 more runs than they have scored and Sri Lanka has conceded 24 runs. If India wins by at least 20 runs, the run difference will be reduce to 43 while Sri Lanka's run difference will increase to 44. That is the only way forward for India.
Winning the toss is also going to be very important, if India won the toss and choose to bowl or if India lost the toss and Sri Lanka decided to bat; let’s assume Sri Lanka scored 160, India will need to chase it down in a maximum of 17.4 overs to make sure their Net Run Rate is higher than Sri Lanka.
All in all, it’s going to be exciting to see who comes out on top. England and Pakistan are already through to the semi final and results from today will determine who plays England and who will face Pakistan. There are already whispers about India underperforming due to IPL and not enough rest. If they do not make the semi final this year the whispers of IPL being bad for the national duty will increase.
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