How accurate are hurricane projected paths?

Question

hurricanes and tropical storms have projected paths. how aacurate are they? I.E. what % of storms actually follow projected paths and what % go a different route?

Answer 1

It's impossible to say, because even though they can predict weather, it can change course at the last minute.

Computer simulations just don't match the real thing  

Answer 2

i'm sorry, but i don't know the the percentage, but i do know that even if the storm goes another way you will probably get your share of the thundering and rain.

Answer 3

you see the projected path is the center of a big blobby looking space? Thats the area the storm could go.......there is also the old sailors 1,2 3 rule which is one day one hundred miles off, two days two hundred, .....

you can also go to www.nhc.noaa.gov and look at the link for "probable wind speeds", which is a close % guess as to how hard it will blow at any given spot....

so four or five days out its a wild guess, 24 hours out its a sure thing......

Answer 4

It's impossible to tell. Hurricanes very all the time. The projections are nothing more than predictions. That's one of the reasons why FEMA mucked up the situation in New Orleans with Katrina. First of all they didn't pay any attention when they broadcasted that Katrina was more than a category 3 hurricane. Second, Katrina didn't hit where she was expected to. Even so, they still should have done a better job evacuating The Gulf Coast region. Hurricanes change routes, too, because barometric pressure can change in the earth's atmosphere. This isn't just the case with hurricanes. It happens with all sorts of storms