How accurate is a 10 day forcast?

Question

How accurate is a 10 day forcast?

Answer 1

The accuracy of a ten day's forecast is very much depending on the type of weather to expect.

If you are in a region and at a time when lows are passing fast, with a high rigde in between them, the forecast is nearly useless.

If you are in a stationary high pressure period, the odd thing is that - the longest it lasts, the longest it will remain. Your ten day's forecast is then probably more accurate.

Some regions of the world have such a stable climate that a ten days forecast is no big deal. For example, I was some years ago in Singapore. The forecast there is: Sunny in the morning with thundery showers in the afternoon. Days after days! That's because the island is at a corner of the sea and almost on the equator. It's hot, it's humid ... every days. So that ten day's forecast is easy; a carbon copy of the previous days.

But in many cases, under temperate latitudes like northern Europe where I live, it is not very much information.

I fly a small aircraft and I depend very much on the weather. Sometimes, I fly across Europe. I read and follow everything I can, even the ten day's forecast. I won't tell me what the weather will be but it shows the tendency.

To have a good idea of the forthcoming weather, it is a good idea to follow how it evolves over a long period. Those long terms forecasts helps to that.