Question:

How could you estimate the GDP Gap?

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How could you estimate the GDP Gap?

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  1. Depends on parameters for analysis, for instance simplest labor-resources approach would look something like this:

    Labor force - unemployed = Employed

    Labor force - NAIRU = Potentially employed

    Employed - Potentially employed = Capacity labor force

    Current GDP / Employed = Output per employed

    (Capacity labor force + Employed) = Potential GDP

    Current GDP - Potential GDP = Output Gap

    (though in reality productivity does not increases linear way)

    But there are many methods using other factors, and combinations of factors (capital, degree of specialization, level of foreign trade, efficiency/waste, etc.), also possible take into account development paths, thus depreciation, production function, induced dynamics of factors, etc.

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