How do I rank specific variables in handicapping thoroughbreds?

Question

I handicap horses in these categories: pace, track favorability, condition favorability, jockey, workout, class, distance, and breeding. How should I rank these factors? Which are more and less important?

Answer 1

Ultimately you have to figure these things out for yourself; handicapping is an art and not a science.  My experience is that every race is different--class may determine one result, another will be settled by pure speed, some are won by jockeys, and still others come down to breeding.  You have to look at each race individually.  As the discipline is an art, you have to develop your own style and hone it as the results dictate.

Answer 2

Too many variables to make a profit consistently! That being said.......

These are my priority considerations, not necessarily in order of importance:

Class- Going up or down in this race; Does he belong with these based upon past performance?

Trainer %- Is the trainer successful in properly entering the horse where it will "be in the money?" Sometimes it's difficult to second guess the trainer's motive.

"Trip"- of the last 2-3 races; stalker,Speedster? ,come from behind? Can he make the distance? Read the comment lines on the charts.

Money earned- Per start & overall. Tells you something about it's class.

Post time Track conditions- A mudder, a "webbie"? Also,

"courses for horses"; better on turf or main track?

If possible-know the signs of a healthy, "happy" horse and look it over in the paddock, mounting area.

Some consideration:

Jockey- The best jocs get the best mounts. Maybe.

Equipment changes- maybe. For example; mud calks are expensive. Putting these on prior to a race means that the trainer/owner is serious.

To a lesser extent:

Beyer and Tomlinson numbers.

Dossage index

speed rating

M.L. odds

Post position (A much bigger factor in harness racing)