How do horse racing bookmakers determine the odds to offer?

Question

How do horse racing bookmakers determine the odds to offer?

Answer 1

Anticipated bets placed on the horses.

Answer 2

The morning line is determined by the anticipated bets the track thinks people will be making. It really has nothing to do with who they think will win, place or show. It's just how they think the public will be wagering.

When the bets are actually being made, the odds will go up or down depending on how much money is being bet on a particular horse. If a horse starts off at 10-1, but a large amount of money is being placed on that horse, the odds will drop (e.g. 5-1).

Hope that helps !

Answer 3

They calculate roughly each horse's probability of winning but instead of the sum of the individual probabilities adding up to one, they add up to something bigger, anything from single decimal places e.g. 1.05 to as high as they can get away with. To arrive at a probability for each price you add 1 to the price and divide the result into 1, in this way, i.e. if the price is 3 to1, add the 2 digits together,3 + 1 (=4), and divide it into the 2nd digit, 1, to get 0.25. If you are with me so far, take a look at the SP's in a race of a few runners or a football match, do the above exercise and add them up. ( If you get a price like 6 to 4 you add 6 to 4 to make 10 and divide into 4 to get 4/10 i.e. 0.4.)When you get the answer, say it is 1.10, that is known as betting 10% over round. However, they do not have to do this math every time, as they carry all these figures in their heads, but not necessarily in this form, since they have made a book so many times they instinctively know what works. In fact probably most bookies would be unlikely to express it in this manner but nevertheless that is the theory.

Few bookies are good independent judges and they rely on odds compilers to do their markets for them.  First shows are always cagey and after a few skirmishes the law of supply and demand takes over.

Answer 4

the odds change as the stake money for a particular hose increses ie if a horse is heavely backed then the odds will be lowwer than as if it was a outsider  hope that helps

Answer 5

I think for the morning line odds, they look at all the circumstances of the race... they look at the horses and compare age and experience...  they might look at workouts or breeding if it's a maiden race... they'll consider the surface and if a particular horse has done well or poorly over that surface or type of surface before.  They might consider the type of runner the horse is in combination with what the surface favors... that might be why Wicked Style went off at such a high price in the futurity at Keeneland despite the fact that he was undefeated and raced over polytrack before!  They basically consider everything that the handicappers will consider when betting on the race.

Answer 6

The Punters make the Market and the odds and fluctuations reflect the market.In theory the better the Horse the shorter are the odds.