How do you factor possible suspensions into player value?

Question

Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Marshall and maybe even Marvin Harrison could face game suspensions for their off-the-field behavior.

How much does this change their player value? Most boards I read put Lynch as a Top 10 RB and Marshall as a Top 15 WR.

Is a one-game suspension half as bad as a two-game suspension? Does the schedule factor in to the decreased value? Do you risk the team finding a suitable alternative?

Answer 1

Remember, these possible suspensions will take place early in the year.  Your play-offs is where you want these guys studding.  I am in a keeper and am leaning toward keeping Marshall (over J. Lewis, Maroney, and Romo!).  If he gets a suspension I here it is for either 1 or less likely 2 games.  Probably same w/ Lynch and Harrison but Harrrison is getting old and has 2 bad knees anyway.

Answer 2

It definitely depends upon a variety of factors, mostly the severity of the suspension and the depth the team has there. For instance, if Harrison got suspended (doubtful), I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. Why? Because Wayne is a stud, and Gonzales was very productive down the stretch last year. In other words, he'd be "replacable" by younger players, so even when he came back, I think he'd be less utilized than his draft pick could justify, and this is a guy who was widely regarded as irreplaceable at the beginning of last year!

Unfortunately, we don't really know what the suspension lengths will be right now for any of those players (although I can't picture Harrison getting suspended). Lynch's case is strange, and I really am not sure what happened there. He may miss a couple of games, but until he gets that official word, I'll draft him as I normally would. Marshall is basically a shoe-in to get suspended. He's had too many blown chances, and I think he'll miss some time. Plus with the injury and whatnot, he's fallen pretty far down my list.

Basically, you have to weigh how he will do and draft him based on that. An excellent player may miss a quarter of a season, and still have a better season than 75% of the guys he's playing with. So for those 12 weeks (especially if they're the last 12 weeks) he would be a top scorer and could win you some games. Depending upon how the draft goes (who's falling, what positions do you need, etc), you may pick up a player who will miss a few games and not have to worry about it, and you may even take him earlier than others would if you think he'll help out that much. Would drafting Marshall be any worse than drafting Steve Smith, who is very injury prone? Well, Marshall missing time is a sure thing, but Steve Smith may be healthy, or he may miss 10 games. Smith definitely has more upside, but It's still a judgement call and gamble.

I'd be wary of it, but until I got official word on the suspensions, I would draft as normal asuming it isn't a situation where the player will nearly undoubtedly be suspended (of course I never draft before late August to avoid unforseen events). If a player is suspended, if it were 1 game, I would draft him as normal as 1 game won't kill you. If it's two, I'd drop him down a couple of slots unless he's a "sure thing" pick (so if LT got suspended, I may take ADP or Westbrook first, but I would be happy to take LT 3rd or 4th overall, even with him sitting out two games - he's that good). If he's out 4 or more, I'd drop him down towards the end of the draft, and if he's there, snag him. It'd be like your early pick getting injured for 4 weeks - sucks, but not exactly a whitewash for the season. Plus he'll come back fresh and ready to play.

It's really too situational to give a globally acceptable answer, but keep in mind the value for the pick, the depth on his team, the risk involved in the pick, and how productive he will be when he returns. If he seems like a bargain pick, he probably is.

Answer 3

I hope you get a lot of answers on this, because there are a number of potential suspensions looming.

I weigh the infractions as carefully as possible.  Brandon Marshall has a DUI case, and multiple assault charges.  He already had a domestic abuse charge dropped in exchange for seeking counseling.  There's almost no way between all those issues he won't be out 2-4 games.

4 games is a quarter of a season, and he's normally a quality WR1 or WR2, capable of 100 catches and double-digit TDs, with a healthy Cutler.

I see two paths:

1) Drop him down considerably in your ranking.  Assume 4 games worth of statistics are missing, making him equivalent to a lesser player.  

2) Draft him anyway, and take whatever discount falls to you, maybe he falls to the fourth or fifth round.  Draft enough depth at WR to cover his absence.  Don't ignore the suspension issue all together, but draft him anyway.

Examples:

Jimmy the Cokehead Smith (JAX) had a four game suspension with the Jags.  I drafted him in the 12th round, and he still put up a 1000 yard season.  I added an additional receiver for depth.  No one wanted him.

A couple years ago the Chargers made a mistake in assigning Antonio Gates to their roster and he was ineligible for the first game.  I kept him in his slot and took him anyway.

Chris Henry and Odell Thuman (IDP guy) are suspended indefinitely.  There's zero reason to speculate on a player like that, and you simply remove them from all consideration.

Excellent, valuable question.

Answer 4

First of all, I'd like to put it out there that it's very unlikely that Harrison is going to be suspended. Even the Colts said that they don't hold him responsible at all for what happened. Also, I'm not sure I'd make Marshall top 15 for WR, but thats just me.

Now as for the question itself, it depends on how you want to approach it.  You can either draft them knowing that even if they are suspended, it's just for a game or two that you could put in a bench player (since your matchup shouldn't depend upon one player anyways).  Or you could drop them down a little in your rankings since there's a little more downside to them.  Or you could just not consider taking them and take the next best player you were considering...seeing as dropping them down in your rankings would have almost the same effect.  What I personally have done is drafted regardless of possible pending suspensions. I draft what I think is a good team, and the only other consideration I put into it is maybe injurie-prone players. You can't be afraid of them getting in trouble since EVERY player in the NFL has some potential to mess around.