How do you get the weather forecast?

Question

is it always correct? would it be possible to forecast the weather by yourself with or without any equipment? how were they forecasting the weather in the history?

Answer 1

Weather forecasting has become easier with newer technology.  A hundred years ago, meteorologists forecasted only by using maps drawn up with weather balloon data and by making calculations based on individual weather balloons  They also used local rules of thumb like, 'if the air smells like the chicken farm we'll have fog in the morning,' really.  Now, we combine as much satellite, radar, weather balloons, surface observations, and other sources of information that we can to draw up a forecast.   Computers also use this information to make their own conclusions based on really complicated physics equations.  As forecasters, we take everything into account.  The TV news weatherman will say something like 50% chance of rain because he's forecasting for a large area.  I am an aviation forecaster and I can be as specific as saying that light rain will start at about 3pm and end by 7pm, for instance.  

As for accuracy, I generally have 85% accuracy when it comes to temperature, pressure, wind direction, speed, and cloud cover for any given weather station that I forecast for.

If you know meteorological concepts well enough and the local rules of thumb, you can be pretty close.  Although, the more data you have to work with, the more accurate you will be.

Using only radar, I was able to issue a severe thunderstorm warning for Sheppard Air Force Base well over an hour before 94mph winds hit the base, back in June 07.  Without that warning they would have lost $120 million in aircraft.

Answer 2

http://www.noaa.gov/

and no they are not always accurate

they use the same method of forcasting seamen

did 500 years ago. Its called an educated guess.

Answer 3

When I am on dry land I use the internet.

Radar, and written forecasts.

On the water I listen to the Wx band on my VHF radio. In my neck of the woods it is usually pretty close.

Answer 4

Hong, do you ever listen to a weather forecast? They give a probability of precipitation. A 50% chance of rain means that 50% of the time identical conditions existed, half of the time it rained, and half it did not.

Modern computer models are pretty accurate, but Mother Nature is still involved, and meterologists don't know all.

It is possible to forecast the weather yourself. Have you ever gotten up in the morning, looked out to see a perfectly clear sky? You know that for a while, at least, the weather will be good. The more that you observe and remember the better at it you will be. Do you have a barometer? A high pressure usually indicates a period of good weather. A falling pressure indicates that worsening weather is coming. When the pressure drops very rapidly, really bad weather is coming quickly.

Regards,

Dan