How do you think Curlin is going to do at the Dubai racing carnival?

Question

He is in a prep race on the 28th. Then goes for the big prize on world cup day.

Answer 1

He's already been excellent at the distances he's targeted for in Dubai. And he's never been a horse who throws a bad race because he didn't like an unfamiliar track. Unless that changes at Nad Al Sheba, he looks hard to beat. The prep will be his first race back--always a chance he won't be in top form off of the layoff, and that he needs an actual race to sharpen him up. His works have been either par or sharp (5 furlongs in 1:00.60; 7 furlongs in 1:25.20 (sharp); 6 furlongs--with 2008 Derby contender Pyro--in 1:13). His upcoming works in Dubai will give us a better idea of how he handles that track, and how fit he is.

Answer 2

Well he's a good horse.  He hasn't raced since the Breeders and he's half way around the world.  But I think they're doing the thing properly by taking him over early and letting him race there once before the World Cup.  It's hard to say anything more specific until it gets closer and we find out who is running and things like that.  The distance is certainly good for him.  If the size of the field gets really huge it might bother him a little... with the exception of the Derby, he's faced fields of less than 10 horses and has always managed to get a good trip... if a lot of other horses become interested in this race, it could hurt Curlin and his late charge running style... but last year the field was only 7 horses... that would be no problem for him.  He hasn't faced international competition before... this will be a different type of field for him, but I don't see why he'd have any problem.  I think he'll do fine.

update: Curlin cantered today and the assistant trainer said he looked good and was comfortable and had energy and everything... he should breeze on Sunday or Monday.

Answer 3

He'll win.

Curlin has raw talent and seem's to get better with age. And his works have all been sharp.

Answer 4

That is a huge step after a layoff, with only morning works and no prep race. But he may be the type who is professional enough in the morning that he can get maximum benefit from fast works...and his racing career certainly points to quality over quantity.

He should be the overwhelming favorite and it will come down to the endless stretch run, which North American racers really don't see. It is a huge learning curve in a short time for a runner to not pull the rider hard coming off the second turn.

Answer 5

If he turns up, I'm pretty sure he'll win.  The Yanks don't send their very top horses to this meeting unless they're confident and, on any interpretation of the form, he's got lengths in hand of the probable opposition.  I recognise all the downsides listed in previous answers, but this is a very very good horse against some who are just pretty decent.  Apart from accidents, pilot error or extremes of going, he's a lay-down.  Only reservation is the likely (UK industry) price.

Answer 6

I doubt he will win.  In a 12 horse field he might finish 4rth to 6th.

In a 6 to 8 horse field he might finish 4rth to third.

The owners will most likely not run curlin to hard.  The track out there is not very suitable to a horses health.

Of course, if the other horses in the race are slacking off, then curlin might get the green light and win.  lol :)