How do you think the stock market will fare over the next half year to year?

Question

I realize that no one truly knows, but all reasoned speculation is welcome. Thanks.

Answer 1

We haven;t reached a bottom, I think. The unemployment is lousy, there is still house being depreciated, and the financial crisis is still on the run.  

Answer 2

Most recessions and bear markets last between 2 and 4 years. This one started October 2007, so I expect overall sideways to down action over the next few years.

Answer 3

I think we're looking at a future defined by "paradigm shifts".  Which is another way of saying "All bets are off!"

There are so many unanticipated and unforseen factors in effect that old methods of analysis and prediction will be close to useless.

(I am thinking of a recent case where the predictions made pretty much randomly by a 4-year-old girl significantly exceeded predictions made by leaders in stock market analysis.)

I think one can assume safely that the US consumption of energy will continue to increase, despite significant reduction in the amount available (with concomitant price increases.)

The North American appetite for cheap Chinese goods will continue to increase indebtedness to China.

Increasing certainty of a regime change in the Untied States in January/09 will provide some measure of hope of release from extreme political disfunction.

The relative value of the US dollar (and related currencies) will continue to fall.

In the US, ordinary people have used their homes as a way of investing and saving for their futures. It is now a year after the beginning of the "sub-prime meltdown". As jobs disappear in a shrinking economy, it will become increasingly difficult for people. to keep up mortgage payments. Real estate prices will continue to fall.

I have just received a modest windfall.  In the past, I probably would have put it into a mutuals fund.  This time, it's going to go into some part of the "underground economy". In the next year or two, paying cash for selected undervalued commercial property would be my choice. Gold, fine art, and similar repositories of value would also be a choice. The return on investment would be low, but their value would be relatively stable during difficult times.

Global food scarcities are becoming apparent. If I knew more about the futures markets, I would focus on foodstuffs. As it is, I have stored as much non-perishable food as is feasible, and am glad I've got a spot to grow potatoes!

Answer 4

Stock markets do follow a pattern sometimes. When the bears dominate we can see the red all over. Bears have a very short life here. Soon bulls would take over. I would suggest it is the time to invest because you can see a lot of shares very cheap. Go on a long term buying spree. You will make profit in the long term.