How good of odds would it take for you to participate in a game?

Question

I need everyones personal opinion. Ok there's a game happening on ebay, it goes like this. 100 tickets are sold at 5$ a piece and then there is a drawing to when a 200$ mp3 player. So the odds of winning are 100 to 1 for the price of 5$. And then you also get a chance to win a xbox, the odds being 1000 to 1. Would anyone else do it?

Answer 1

Think about it in terms of math.  The odds of you winning the mp3 player are 100-1.  But the payout is only 40-1.  This gives a "house advantage" of (100-40)/(100+1) X 100% = 59.4%.  This is a TERRIBLE bet!  You can calculate the odds for the Xbox the same way, figure it's worth about $350.  (1000-70)/(1000+1) X 100% = 92.9%!  Multiply the two together to get your overall house advantage of 55.2%.  There's not a gambler alive that would put money down on this.  Anything less than about 8% is, while still having negative expectation, worth taking a shot at.  A hardway bet on a craps table has a house edge of 9-11%, and they're often considered "sucker bets".  You're looking at 5 times that.  Save your money.

Answer 2

I'm pretty sure ebay would not allow you to do such a thing. And running a private raffle for profit is illegal in most places by the way.

Answer 3

Since it's on ebay and the profit they make probably wouldn't be going to something worthwhile like a charity....no, i wouldn't do it.