How is guilty in South Ossetian conflict?

Question

There is a war at the Caucasus now, between Georgia (caucasian state), South Ossetia and Russia.

Who is guilty of it, how do you think?

Do you beleive, that Georgia killed more than thousand ossetians first and the russian invasion is a pacification?

Or do you think the Russia is making an agression on Georgia?

What is the picture of the situation, that is drawen by american mass media?

Thanks.

Answer 1

Russia.  Though Georgia gave them the excuse to invade, this has always been what Russia planned.  They want to reassert control in this region and gain control of the keep oil supply that is pumped though the region.

Answer 2

Well, we are far from battles here. The only source of information is mass-media. And both russian and US mass-media are obviously lying.

Information (or disinformation) is a mighty weapon now.

So first we need a source neutral enough.



IMHO Guardian is good one:

Article blaming russian bombing of Gori

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug...

Article about osetian refugees:

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug...

They are showing war from both sides. Thats good. I've tried to reconstruct puzzle. I assume both sides are nor good, nor stupid. Both  have their plans and schemes.



So smoldering feud (and provocations by both sides) was neverending since osetian war for independence in 1992. Osetia - constant source of trouble for Georgia, and Georgia being constant menace for rebels. And suddenly after very expensive gerogian armed force buffing program and right before olympics osetian provocations become stronger, so Saakashvili is forced to well ... use rocket artillery against rebel capital ant by the way kill russian peace-keepers. To enforce peace and stability off course. By the coincidence this happens right in the night of olympics-opening ceremony.

Isn't this too much for a coincidence? Yes. It is a very smart and cunning plan! Look:

During night georgian army is storming Tskhinali, when resistance is suppressed, advances to the Rok tunnel (the only route between Osetia and Russia). Destroying tunnel effectively cuts Russia off. Mountains are impassable and georgian anti-aircraft power is impressive enough to thwart any attempt of air-drop. In the meantime olympics distract worlds attention and friendly US mass media just erhm overlooks little war.

Russia simply has no time for reaction before it is too late. Political decision takes time, say until morning. Some time for mobilizing forces (3-4 hours at least), and after that long road from bases towards snowy mountain pass. Thats another 16-20 hours.

There is one mistake: this plan is too good, to be overlooked by russians (remember: nor good, nor stupid!). I'm sure, russians had some intelligence data about those preparations. And amassing of georgian forces was very clear, there were even articles in press about that...

So there is a counter plan. Relocate fore-squads of 58th army toward the Rok in deep secret. Prepare the jets (fuel, armament, pilots), prepare a diplomatic note for a Security Council of U.N.

Putin flies to Beijing (plays fool). Calm on diplomatic channels.

Saakashvili has given a casus belli. Unique opportunity to invade his country and overthrow him, capture the vital gap between  Russia and Iran, sweet opportunity for avenging the Kosovo.

War is a cruel game. Osetians and georgians pay for ambitions of two  

warmongers.    

Answer 3

With the stuff I have heard the Georgia's were the ones who pulled the trigger first, but the Russians are pounding Georgia into a bloody pulp and not letting up. I think Russia will take over Georgia.

Answer 4

I think Georgia badly blundered by attacking the South Ossetian capital the other day.  They either thought that Russia would not respond the way it has or they thought that Western pressure on Russia would stop any counter attack.  Either way, Georgia should accept, as Serbia will with Kosovo, that this land is no longer theirs, history or not.

I don't think that Georgia killed thousands of South Ossetians recently because Putin and Medvedev are not using that as a justification.

Russia is defintely using the Georgian action in South Ossetia the other day as a way to settle their beefs with Georgia.

The American media seems to be portraying things accurately once you read the stories, but to read only the headlines it is pro Georgian.

Answer 5

1. Saakashvilli

2. Yes

3. No

The better way to read another sources:

http://www.rbcnews.com/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug...

Russia has accepted more than 15000 refugees from S.Osetia.

People of Russia are ready to help to S.Osetia refugees and give them a home.

Do you think that it looks like aggression?