How is wind speed predicted for a ten day forecast?

Question

How is wind speed predicted for a ten day forecast?

Answer 1

In one word: Poorly.

The wind speed is predicted as a result of how tight the isobars will be in the next days. The isobars, or lines of equal pressure, will be more or less tight, depending on how deep a low will be, how strong a high pressure will be and how they will move. It's pretty much of a guess work.

When say, a low is moving north east from the Atlantic and toward northern Europe, it is easy to predict that it will bring rain and wind. But how much, exactly when and where, is very difficult to predict.

If you have ever seen 'cones' of probablility of the track of say a hurricane on a map, you know that after a couple of days, the path of probability is so wide that it is just wild guess.

Any weather forecast valid for ten days is most uncertain. If e.g. you were to sail a yacht in ten days and I tell you that the chances of having a gale wind are 0.5 % would you find it interesting information? I think not.

Answer 2

They estimate these kind of winds using present and forecasted conditions along with climatology tables.....