How likely are we to be hit by an asteroid we don't see?

Question

I wasn't sure how to ask this..

Answer 1

The chances are quite slim, but it is still very much possible that the earth can be hit by large space rock. Although asteroids are under surveylence and their movements are calculated, comets are not. Unlike asteroids, which travel around the sun in a similar orbit to that of the other 8 planets (not counting Pluto) comets have very elongated orbits that can sometimes shift in direction and hurdle towards planets. because of their very long orbit, scientists cannot detect comets that can pose a threat to humans. whether a comet is discovered 10 years beforehand or a week beforehand, there is nothing much we can do with today's technology. The best hope scientist have is to send out a missle and destroy the rock, but that could be even more dangerous than the actual rock. If the rock is big enough, it will break into numerous smaller, yet stil threatening pieces. Whats wrose is that those pieces might possibly be radioactive due to the missle, so when they hit the earth, they could create harmful gasses  that could kill humans through the air rather than just the impact. Scientists believe that if a comet with a collision course with Earth is not detected within 3 years of impact, there is almost NOTHING, we can do. If detected before 3 years, Preferably 10 years, the scientists could possibly sent out a rocket that could change the course of the comet so it misses the earth. The earlier the comet's course is shfted, the less the chance that it will hit earth. However, with current technology, since nothing like this has ever been attempted, we are technically sitting ducks!

Answer 2

We will be able to spot any very large asteroid heading towards us... the question is.... what can we do to stop it or steer it another way?  Or how long will it be heading towards us until they tell the average joe the probability of dying, really soon, just got alot higher.

Answer 3

I watched a show a long time ago (when TLC was still the "learning" channel!) and heard that an individual has a better chance of dying in a plane crash than the earth does being hit by an asteroid greater than 1/4 mi. in diameter.

The Earth is hit by small asteroids every day (most burn up when they enter the atmosphere), but the good thing is most of the big ones were destroyed when the galaxy was still young. The chances are really very small that we would be hit by one as big as the one that killed the dinosaurs.

Answer 4

99.9% due to the fact that nasa only looks at on average about 1 percent of the sky

Answer 5

A little one?  That happens all the time.  A big one?  Anything big enough to do serious damage has a good chance of being spotted ahead of time, either by one of the SpaceWatch programs or by amateurs looking for comets.  And when the LSST comes online, it will scan the entire sky every three days looking for new objects - nothing will get past us.

Answer 6

Everyday the Earth is bombarded by millions of tiny asteroids and material that is just dissolved in the atmosphere.

As for significant impacts, we can rest assured that we won't be hit by any meteors. BUT, comets pose a significant danger. They are very hard to detect until it is too late.

Answer 7

Quite likely, however probably the more pertinent question is how much damage will it do.

We never saw the object coming that landed in Carancas in Peru last year.  It made quite a hole in the ground and the debris knocked some holes in nearby roofs, but otherwise no damage.  It's unlikely that we would ever develop a network of sensors that could reliably detect such objects years in advance of their impact.

At the moment it is also unlikely that we would see the next object of a size similar to that which caused the explosion over the Tunguska region of Siberia in June 1908 (100 years ago) before it struck.

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is a proposed instrument that could make some inroads into finding and cataloging some of the smaller Near-Earth Objects getting down towards the size of the Tunguska object.

In the last 10 years it would appear that we've discovered around 80% of the objects around 1 km in diameter and larger that can come close to the Earth.  Of course it's hard to be definitive when you don't know if you've looked everywhere but the rate of discovery of new objects in the 1 km size range has dropped considerably, even though the detection rates of smaller objects continue to rise.

Answer 8

apparently we have some we have missed and we're slowly going to shoot it out but there are some that are some distance and it will take quite afew years before it gets here an dtherefore the people are thnking we're going to ge thit and they dont' know what it wil do but i wouldn't worry by that tiem we'll be gone i ams ure.

Answer 9

0% chance!

Answer 10

The odds are pretty high, *but* in June, 2002 an asteroid about 80 meters in diameter (..comparable to the object that impacted the Tunguska region in Siberia back in the early 1900's..) missed Earth by only 120,000 km (..the moon is 386,242 km away from Earth..) Had it struck it would have devastated an area of some 120,000 km ².

What's scary is that we didn't know this asteroid (..2002MN..) was anywhere around until three days *after* it had passed by.