How likely is a pole shift for the earth ??

Question

and in that event..is there any safe place to be ??

Answer 1

It happens (very loosely on average) every 500,000 years or so, we're very overdue for a magnetic pole shift.  My understanding is that it takes a long time to actually go through the process of a shift.  The magnetic field has been weakening over the years, which could indicate a shift.  The sun's polarity switches every 11 years, and we're due for a pole switch in 2012.

If it does happen there isn't much you can do about it, or locations that would be more safe, there'd be a lot of problems everywhere on the planet.

"I think the chances are that it will not happen, " he says. "It's a highly erratic process - there have been intervals of tens of millions of years without reversals." - Jeremy Bloxham, planetary scientist at Harvard University

Hope that helps answer your question.

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\\  Golgothor

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Answer 2

The chance of a magnetic pole shift for the earth or a certainty.  They've occurred in the past and will continue for as long as the earth as a molten core.  Predicting them is a bit more of a problem though.  Also guessing how much it will effect our lives.  But looking at the fossil record there has been no major extinction events related to polar flips, so that's one relief.  As for communications and the such?  I think the problem time will be be be for the flip starts.  If the magnetic field collapses or weakens to an extent that the solar radiation that reaches the earth increases then the best place would be indoors with the shades drawn.

Answer 3

It's so completely random that no estimate is likely.

By the way, it's not that the Sun will rise in the west; rather, compasses will start swinging south and that will be it. Not too dramatic.

Better be indoors, just to be on the safe side, because a) cosmic radiation won't be that well shielded and b) communications will be disrupted from the variation in the magnetic field, so no cellphones, wi-fi or radio-tv (I don't know about cable). So some people might choose it's a good idea to break a few shop windows downtown.

Answer 4

nowhere safe , and I have been pondering that eventuality , I think i'll get a  bottle in , just in case , check the magnetic north adjustments over the recorded years .

Answer 5

Which pole?  Geographic or magnetic?

If you mean geographic--not likely.  If you mean magnetic-that pole wanders around a bit all the time.

Oh, just realized that you might mean pole reversal.  Is that what you mean?

If that is what you mean, then check out:

http://www.polereversal.com/

http://www.halexandria.org/dward761.htm

http://www.pureenergysystems.com/news/20...