How long until China overtakes the USA as the world's superpower?

Question

Depending on how you measure "power" I've heard estimates between 10 years and 50 years. Some reckon they won't and that the US will remain the world's only superpower. And as long as they behave themselves and don't go around attacking other countries -- is it anything to be concerned about?

Answer 1

what do i care, i'll be a minority in my own country by then

if being invaded by mexico's ok, why not china?

wouldnt that just be more diversity to value?

Answer 2

There will be no clearly defined transfer of superpower, as is already clear wherein you state that estimates peg the time between 10 and 50 years.

And if you accept the widely held premise that military domination is an essential ingredient of superpower status, then consider the following:

Military domination by China is anything but clear in the next 10 to 50 years. Providing that the U.S. maintains its sizable lead in space and in nano technologies in terms of their military programs, China will remain a contender, but not the superpower.

Military domination is no longer singularly achieved by blunt instruments such as mass destructive capability (ie. nuclear devices). Those are necessary tool in a country's arsenal for their deterrant effect, but will not in and of themselves ensure military domination. Just like mustard gas in WWI, nuclear is fast becoming a relic of a by-gone era.

Nano-technologies (ie. as in projects the U.S. is already succeeding in such as creating invisibility, as well as others that stretch the limits of physics), and space technologies can simply neutralize the old military technologies.  

An example as to how: Nuclear devices can be detected from space (using geiger counters), invisibly sought out on the ground (using nano-technology), and completely foiled. The most dangerous aspect of this is that all of this can be done absent human detection.

That, of course, omits to add that nuclear devices cannot similarly be blown out of the sky or right out of the ground inside an aggressor country's borders.

Emerging nano science in the area of physics is now in fact advancing towards allowing for sealed containers to be invaded and the chemical structures of the container's contents to be altered. This, when used in terms of countering nuclear weaponry, allows the weapon to be neutralized by simply altering the chemical makeup of the fuel inside of the device. Perhaps this can eventually be done from space.

So, there's your answer. If China attains this level of military sophistication (and indeed surpasses it), it may be a contender for superpower status. If not, China will be another large economy (like Japan has been for the last 30 odd years), but not much more.

Answer 3

It is unusual for the world to have a  superpower. The more common situation is for there to be two or more powerful countries  with spheres of influence. China will probably  become the dominate power in the region within  10 or 20 years, but it is unlikely the  will be the world's superpower the way the US is, and they probably do not even want to.

Answer 4

Attacking other countries is very expensive, especially when the war lasts for a long time as for example the US war in Iraq.   And if USA continues to have wars in the future as it is having now.  Then China might become a bigger superpower than USA because of US economic decline.

If there is anything to be concerned about.  Then perhaps possible US economic decline is something to be more concerned about than the economic improvement in China.

Answer 5

'Superpower' is a term for the one or two nations that are way way out in front of other countries in terms of economic, military or other 'power' to influence the world.  The USA and USSR were the first two it applied to.

Now, with the break-up of the USSR, the USA is called the world's sole (only) superpower.  

If China overtook the USA in 'power', and both were far beyond other nations still, they would both be the superpowers, not just China.  The USA and USSR were not exactly even in 'power,' but they were still both superpowers because no one else was even close.

It may be in the near future that no one or two nations can claim to be that uniquely powerful, compared to others.

Answer 6

I don't think they will. I think it'll be something in Europe.  

Answer 7

I did a simple compounded growth calculation with GDP numbers from IMF via wikipedia.

Assuming USA has an annual GDP growth of 2% and China has an annual GDP growth of 10% it will take roughly 20 years for China to overtake economic leadership for a single country.

Now assuming China maintains 10% annual growth for 20 years is QUITE an assumption, but there you go:

_____gdp 2007__growthrate___gdp 2027

us____13843_____2%________20570,0

china__3250_____10%_______21864,4