How long will Nadal retain his number one ranking, and can Djokovic overtake Federer?

Question

I think many people are wondering whether Nadal can hold on to his number one ranking and if Djokovic can overtake Federer for the number two spot. I just looked at the points they have to defend for the rest of the year and here's what I found.

Federer - 2325 total

1. US Open - 1000

2. Masters Cup - 650

3. Masters Series Madrid - 350

4. Masters Series Paris - 75

5. Basel - 250

Djokovic - 1180 total

1. US Open - 700

2. Vienna - 250

3. Masters Series Madrid - 225

4. Masters Series Paris - 5

Nadal - 825 total

1. US Open - 150

2. Masters Series Madrid - 125

3. Masters Series Paris - 350

4. Masters Cup - 200

By the looks of it Nadal's number one spot looks incredibly safe and Federer is in a great deal of trouble, if he continues to play the way he is now. He has three titles to defend, versus one for Djokovic and none for Nadal. It is very likely that Nadal will remain number one, Djokovic will jump a spot to number two, and Federer will drop the number three. Nadal will still have a huge lead of more than one thousand points, while Federer and Djokovic will be separated by one hundred or two hundred points at the most. What do you all think?

Answer 1

Rafa didn't play well at this time last year, so he has very few points to defend. I think he'll definitely be the world number one for quite some time to come.

As for Roger, he's lost so many points already, and he needs to upgrade his game if he wants to remain the world number two! He's had a really weak year, and he can't afford to lose more points.

If you look at the rankings, the point difference between Djokovic and Federer isn't too much! If Novak plays the way he's playing he can become the new world number two!

Federer needs to play REALLY well if he wants to hold onto his position. Right now he needs to be worried about Djokovic and not Rafa.

Answer 2

With Nadal at 6700, and Federer at 5930, and Novak at 5105, it wont be until after The Open, and most likely at the seasn ending championships, the top 3 will be decided.

With The Open approaching, Roger has points to defend while winning it, and Nadal and Novak can actualy even gain some points from last seasons finish.  It would be most interesting if Novak wins The Open, which I think he will, and create an even more close, tight, slim margin in ranking points. Now that Fed is 2nd he will have to face Djokovic in semis, rather then the usual Nadal. I think Novak can beat Federer in that match, being Roger is a bit "off".  I want Nadal to win, but I think he is playing too much and on the hard courts, despite how tremendous he plays and has adjusted his game to the surface, with having to win 7 matches on that grueling surface against the field is quite difficult being he cant defend as he usually does,a nd has to receive even more of a huge serve from other players. takes its toll. He will do well, but unfortunately dont think he will win. Will come down to what happens in November.  

Answer 3

There is no question that Nadal will finish the year at No. 1 He's only defending 150 points at the open, so even if Federer defends his title, Nadal is going to pick up even more points.As far as how long Nadal will remain No. 1, I think it's impossible to predict at this point. I don't see him surpassing Federer's streak of consecutive weeks at No. 1,though----- His style of play seems to be much harder on his body than Federer's style. As for Djokovic overtaking Federer this year--It all depends on how RF does the rest of the year. Djokovic is behind by 825 points and he's defending 700 at the Open, so I don't see him surpassing Federer there. My guess is that if Federer plays reasonably well he will hold on to No. 2. What really hurts Federer is that almost all of the points he has had to defend  from 2007 are championship points, so he has nowhere to go but down in terms of points. We may see Federer and Djokovic go back and forth next season, but even that is hard to predict, because next season Federer will be defending fewer points and he will have a chance to gain a lot of ground. It's really interesting that twice this year, Djokovic played Nadal for the No. 2 spot!  

Answer 4

nadal will remain no. 1 till  year end

Answer 5

it seems that you answer your own question already. but i definitely agrees with you. with tons of points to defend and the way he (FED) is playing, it is quite difficult for him to reclaim the number 1 spot from NADAL ( i had a similar question before where i asked if FED will slip to number 3 and DJOKO will become number 2). i am hoping NADAL to win the US open which is possible that way he is playing right now and IF he do this, think that he will also have a very good chance to take the Australian Open. ITS NOW A TOSS WHO WILL BE NUMBER 2 BETWEEN Fed and Djoko. Will have a clearer pictures after the US Open and 2 Master Series (Madrid and Paris). BUT ONE THING IS QUITE SURE - NADAL will definitely be NUMBER 1 for quitesometimes - time will only tell how long. Who knows - he might break FED's consecutive reigns at number 1?