How long will it take "scientist" to tweak the models?

Question

Every time the models are empirically wrong (hurricanes for example) the "experts" go to their basements to tweak their models. When they emerge, they hold in their hands new predictions which closely mirror recent past climate.

When can I expect the new predictions which says AGW models predicted this cold spell?

Answer 1

I get a signal, I'm seeing a lot of noise from the alarmist...something I always wanted to say. Less see, they tossed out the sun,oceans,and nature. I don't see anything left for tweaking.

Answer 2

"The deniers are simply wrong when they claim that the IPCC has overestimated either current or future warming impacts. As many other recent observations reveal, the IPCC has been underestimating those impacts."

"Since 2000, carbon dioxide emissions have grown faster than any IPCC model had projected.

The temperature rise from 1990 to 2005 -- 0.33°C -- was "near the top end of the range" of IPCC climate model predictions."

"The recent [Arctic] sea-ice retreat is larger than in any of the (19) IPCC [climate] models" -- and that was a Norwegian expert in 2005. Since then, the Arctic retreat has stunned scientists by accelerating, losing an area equal to Texas and California just last summer."

"The unexpectedly rapid expansion of the tropical belt constitutes yet another signal that climate change is occurring sooner than expected," noted one climate researcher in December.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/0...

Your assumption is wrong, because the IPCC scientists have repeatedly understated the effects of greenhouse gases and the progress of global warming.  Their reports don't reflect the full results that the scientific data shows.  All of their predictions for loss of ice, rise in ocean temps and many others, are less than what is already happening.

They have intentionally over compensated for things like solar activity, to stay on the conservative side in their estimates.

And that is the only tweaking involved.

Answer 3

They don't need tweaking.

Of course, they don't predict weather, they predict climate.  As long as we keep producing huge amounts of greenhouse gases, it's easy.

"There's a better scientific consensus on this [climate change] than on any issue I know -

Global warming is almost a no-brainer at this point,You really can't find intelligent, quantitative arguments to make it go away."

Dr. Jerry Mahlman, NOAA

Answer 4

As long as the money is flowing, global warming will always be an issue.

Answer 5

Looking at Ben's answer, they just had to revise it in January...so the next revision will come out about August to explain why the globe ISN'T going to warm after the la nina season...

Answer 6

You got that right cowboy

Answer 7

What cold spell? I presume that you are talking from an entirely American perspective? This winter has not been any colder than those of the recent past where I am living although we have had higher wind speeds and more rain. The G in AGW is for Global not American!

Answer 8

In January of 2008...

According to the Met Office, "2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and University of East Anglia climate scientists, but is still forecast to be one of the top-ten warmest years."

"For 2008, the development of a strong La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean will limit the warming trend of the global climate.  During La Niña, cold waters upwell to cool large areas of the ocean and land surface temperatures. The forecast includes for the first time a new decadal forecast using a climate model. This indicates that the current La Niña event will weaken only slowly through 2008, disappearing by the end of the year.

"Prof. Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: 'Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have a significant influence on global surface temperature and the current strong La Niña will act to limit temperatures in 2008. However, ... sharply renewed warming is likely once La Niña declines.'"

Answer 9

Climate scientists dont' forecast cold spells... weather.  

The ENSO weather pattern however is very well known, as Dr. James Hansen noted on January 14th, long before any weather results were reported for January:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2...

"El Nino-La Nina Cycle. The cooler than normal equatorial region just to the west of South America is a reflection of the ongoing La Nina phase of a phenomenon dubbed the Southern Oscillation. In the La Nina phase of the El Nino-La Nina cycle the equatorial winds in the Pacific Ocean blow with stronger than average force from the east, driving warm surface waters toward the Western Pacific. This induces upwelling of cold deep water near Peru, which then spreads westward along the equator.  Figure 2, the surface temperature anomaly for July-December, shows that the La Nina equatorial cooling is strong in the second half of the year. The La Nina should thus continue to affect global temperatures into 2008."

Here are his comments now:

Cold Weather

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2...

Answer 10

Do you have any proof for this or are we supposed to take your word for it?

BTW Your country is NOT the whole world!!!  Parts of Europe are setting records for heat.

Answer 11

You haven't got the foggiest idea what a climate model is, do you?

Edit: Thank you for your confirmation.

Answer 12

The models won't be tweaked to predict cooling unless there is money in it!

The sheople have spoken!

Man thrives in warmer climates and our prosperity has been interjected with elitists socialist that want us to feel guilty of the way we live because of that prosperity we and our forefathers worked for. Prosperity leads to less Independence and less Independence leads to less control over your and my life, which the liberal socialist will not stand for.

On the other hand, if cooling were to gather momentum and we had to survive the cooling, it would take prosperity to to keep everybody comfy like they are used to. You would have to prosper because man does not flourish well in colder climates. The socialist elite will do it's damned to keep you from prospering beyond the limits of their control.

Trust me!!!

Answer 13

When the believers feel threatened by the skeptics. They've really enjoyed a pretty long hold over the general public's mind on this issue.