How many climate computer models are there?

Question

Algore is in tight with the global warming researchers and he says we have 10 years to act before it's too late.

Prince Charles cares about global warming and is in tight with global warming researchers and he says we only have 18 months to act before it's too late.

Dr. Stephen Hawkings is a brilliant scientist and probably has many researchers on speed dial, he tells us that in 30 years the climate will be 450 degs and rain sulfuric acid. while Ted Turner, certainly a man with means and contacts is telling us in 30 years will be cannibals.

No doubt they are getting their information from the same climate model. So why are the results so different depending on who you talk to?

Do the climate models say we have 10 years or 18 months? This is a huge difference but is it within the margin of error?

No one can live in temps of 450degs so in 10 years will we be dead, cannibals, or just finding out it's too late?

Which is correct, or are all within the margin of error?

Answer 1

That report that Bush just issued this week about Global Warming in the US has over 750 sources.

The evidence is not in the computer models, its that observations are fitting the models.  The model makes a prediction, the predictio is tested and the theory is adjusted and given new confidence levels based on the ongoing process.  We are already up to being more than 90% certain that man is doing most of the warming.  

Its a very interesting read for those who really want to know.   Here are some of the observations -- these are all direct cut and pastes.  And yes, I've selectively picked stuff out, so you all should really read it yourself to understand how much evidense there is and what is / is not certain.

* Of the 455 biological observations assessed by the IPCC, 92% were consistent with the changes

expected due to average warming (Rosenzweig et al., 2007)."

* The climate system is warming, as is now evident from direct observations of increases in global

average air and ocean temperatures and inferences from widespread melting of snow and ice,

rising global average sea level, and other indicators.

*The rate of global warming over the last 50 years (0.23 ± 0.05 °F per decade) is almost double that for the past 100 years (0.13 ± 0.04 °F per decade).

* Like global average temperatures, U.S. average temperatures also increased during the 20th and

into the 21st century, according to federal statistics. The last decade is the warmest in more than

a century of direct observations in the United States.

* Observations indicate that annual average Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 2.7 ± 0.6% perdecade between 1978 and 2005.

* Along the Alaskan coast, reductions in the thickness and spatial extent of sea ice are creating more open water

* There is strong evidence that global average sea level gradually rose during the 20th century, after a period of little change between A.D. 0 and A.D. 1900, and is currently rising at an increased rate. The global average rate of sea level rise from 1993 to 2003 was 0.12 ± 0.03

inches per year, significantly higher than the 20th century average rate of 0.067 ± 0.02 inches per

year.

Answer 2

Are you serious?  How can you believe such extremists?  Did you know that 95% of Mars atmosphere is carbon dioxide and the Earth's atmosphere is .04%?  Mars temperature shows no signs of global warming at its steady -81 Farenheit average temp.  Google it.

Answer 3

more than you can shake a stick at, and guess what???

they're all correct too!!!  though the margin of error may be of question........

Answer 4

Dozens.  I've listed some of the most important at the bottom.

Al Gore, Prince Charles, Ted Turner, and Stephen Hawking are not the authorities on this.  No one in the scientific communities relies on them.  They'll all look at the data somewhat differently.  The real info comes not from "sound bites" but from scientific reports.

How long we have depends on what actions we take.  But, the longer we wait, the harder and more expensive it will be.

Table 4. AOGCMs in the Intercomparison

Originating Group Country           Model

BCCR Norway                         BCCR-BCM2.0

CCCma Canada                        CGCM3.1(T47/T63)

CCSR/NIES/FRCGC Japan               MIROC3.2(medres/hires)

CNRM France                         CNRM-CM3

GFDL USA                            GFDL-CM2.0/2.1

GISS USA                            GISS-EH/ER

INM Russia                          INM-CM3.0

IPSL France                         IPSL-CM4

LASG/IAP China                      FGOALS-g1.0

MIUB/METRI/KMA Germany/Korea        ECHO-G

MPIfM Germany                       ECHAM5/MPI-OM

MRI Japan                           MRI-CGCM2.3.2

NCAR USA                            CCSM3

NCAR USA                            PCM

UKMO UK                             HadCM3

UKMO UK                             HadGEM1

Answer 5

It's interesting to see how all of the people you reference aren't climatologists. Interesting but not surprising.

Check with the IPCC, and, roughly, most reputable scientists will give you similar predictions, which you saw in the link I gave you in your last question.

Answer 6

It's because it's a joke that's why haha. They type is some data then have some software that extrapolates all these projections, yet you change some minor details and you get completely different answers. The world and people are gonna be around barring a nuclear holacaust or something like that for longggg into the future. I find it easier just to ignore the wacko global warming people. They enjoy beleiving what they beleive so i say let them be. Go on like me driving your SUV and enjoyin life ; )

Answer 7

I am... flabbergasted.  This is a serious question?  I know you are smart enough to know those are not credible scientific predictions.  Why are you even posting this?

EDIT:  A "scientific prediction" is an oxymoron?  Surely you've done physics and chemistry labs that went as expected?